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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

Tropical Storm Paloma
Thu Nov 06 2008 12:10 PM

TD 17 was upgraded overnight to Tropical Storm Paloma. More to follow...

...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WITH
35-KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHOALING ISSUES.
...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
30 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. THE HWRF FORECASTS A
PEAK INTENSITY 114 KT AND 921 MB IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL
FORECASTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KT AND 961 MB IN 66 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...CALLING FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS. FIRST...THE GFDL...HWRF... AND BAMD
FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS... NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW PALOMA SHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...
WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS
SHOWS THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK...KEEPING PALOMA WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THIS SET OF SOLUTIONS...
SHOWING THE CENTER REACHING THE BAHAMAS. SINCE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS FOR A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE AT 72 HR...
THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR WILL BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/060858.shtml

Edited by danielw (Thu Nov 06 2008 12:24 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression 17 Forms. No Threat to Mainland US	MikeC	Thu Nov 06 2008 12:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Paloma	La Nimo	Fri Nov 07 2008 12:23 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Paloma	WeatherNut	Thu Nov 06 2008 11:53 PM
Tropical Storm Paloma	danielw	Thu Nov 06 2008 12:10 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	Cat 5orBust	Wed Nov 05 2008 09:31 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	mikethewreck	Wed Nov 05 2008 09:25 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	scottsvb	Wed Nov 05 2008 06:30 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	LoisCane	Wed Nov 05 2008 05:03 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	danielw	Wed Nov 05 2008 01:39 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	cieldumort	Wed Nov 05 2008 06:51 AM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	Storm Cooper	Wed Nov 05 2008 02:35 AM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	LoisCane	Tue Nov 04 2008 11:53 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	Cat 5orBust	Tue Nov 04 2008 08:34 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	MichaelA	Tue Nov 04 2008 07:33 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	LoisCane	Tue Nov 04 2008 01:22 AM

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