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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone Formation Looking Less Likely
      Thu Jun 11 2009 09:09 PM

Hmmm ... You're right. Looks to be not very well organized today. Animated visible imagery suggests that there might be several minor circulation centers, in addition to the main one. Microwave imagery doesn't look too pretty, either.

I think the 'window of opportunity' could be closing soon. Even if the convection consolidates tonight (not out of the question) and a TD/storm does form, it's quite likely to be short-lived.

The SST overlay reveals a very complex pattern. One of the strangest I've ever seen. There is a *strong* thermal gradient (tightly packed isotherms) of high amplitude to the NE of the LLC *and* much cooler waters just to the west.



So it now seems to me that development to TD is rather questionable, and even if it does occur, will be short-lived as the SST's in the area just don't really support much development of this system, if at all.

But I concur with Michael that it could be a rather 'unusual season' shaping up for all the basins east of the dateline. More on that later, which I will post to another forum.

Edited by CoconutCandy (Fri Jun 12 2009 11:45 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert in the East Pac CoconutCandy Thu Jun 11 2009 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert in the East Pac MichaelA   Thu Jun 11 2009 01:44 PM
. * * Tropical Cyclone Formation Looking Less Likely CoconutCandy   Thu Jun 11 2009 09:09 PM
. * * TC Formation? Not! CoconutCandy   Fri Jun 12 2009 11:39 PM

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