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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bay of Campeche Invest
      Mon Jun 22 2009 04:22 PM

One of the more rapid developing systems that I've seen in the BOC. Appears to have some upper level support from a weak high pressure aloft.

Latest tropical model runs:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Canadian...Moving toward the SE.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/09062212/71.html
GFS...Stationary in Southern BOC


edit: NHC has updated this to a Low probability of development at 1:36pm EDT today~danielw

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/221735.shtml

Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 22 2009 04:45 PM)

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* Bay of Campeche Invest cieldumort Mon Jun 22 2009 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Bay of Campeche Invest danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 22 2009 04:22 PM

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