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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Watching the Gulf, but Not Expecting anything for the week.
      Fri Jun 26 2009 08:10 AM

5:30PM EDT Update 28 Jun 2009
Although there are a few things to watch in the tropics, the set up this week seems to prevent any tropical development.

93L has nothing more going for it than a wave axis at the moment, and looks like it won't do much other than cause some rain (even that won't be all that much). The satellite presentation, surrounding conditions, and an oncoming front arriving around Tuesday should finish whatever is left off.

10:40PM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009
The Wave known as 93L has not persisted much today, models are no longer predicting development, and neither are we. We'll watch what remains, but it's real chance has come and gone. Satellite indicates northerly shear may be starting to form in the Gulf, which will further diminish any chance of development.



Elsewhere in the tropics, thankfully, there isn't much to watch. Things can change, but until then enjoy the Independence Day week (In the USA)!

7:00AM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009

The wave (93L) in the western Caribbean Sea has decreased in convection overnight, which lowers the chances for development soon, there is still enough organization to keep it worth watching. Most of the model runs have lowered its projected intensity for it in the Gulf, which is good news.



There is still a 50-70% chance this system will not develop, and until a low level circulation has formed, it will not. Signs of it are showing just off the eastern coast of the Yucatan. But in general, the system is not looking all that great. It likely will not develop today,.

If the general system persists until reaching the Gulf (it may just clip or pass to the east of the Yucatan) it has a chance to develop then. But for today, it looks like it won't reach tropical status.

If a circulation center doesn't form by sometime in the Gulf it will just mean rain for Florida.

Those in the Eastern Gulf should continue to monitor this into next week.

6:15PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009

93L is maintaining itself well, and the chance of development remains around 30-50%. More model runs are coming out which indicates the eastern Gulf of Mexcio will be most likely affected by whatever happens around Tuesday or Wednesday. As it is not completely developed, things may change.

If it persists through the evening into tomorrow, and a true low level circulation forms, then it's open to become a named storm.



The movement may depend on how rapidly the ridge to the northwest of the system develops vs the trough to the northeast of the system. If the ridge prevails,.the system should move more to the northwest, however, if the trough prevails the system should eventually move more northeast. Currently the low level tropical model suite moves the system to the northwest whereas the deeper models (HWRF, GFS) that incorporate the upper level flow eventually move the system to the northeast.

2PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009
The wave in the west Caribbean (93L) has organized a bit this morning, more around the center than previously. It looks like it will not develop enough in time to be named before it reaches the Yucatan, but it will likely be on the upswing when it does.

What is more interesting is what happens after it moves near or across the tip of the Yucatan, most likely into the Southern Gulf. If it survives that, Once there, chances improve quite a bit that this system will develop, meaning those along the Gulf Coast will want to watch this one. Some longer range models indicate the eastern Gulf will want to keep watch on it.

More updates to come...

What do you think it will do? Let us know in the 93L Lounge.

Original Update
There is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean that is running roughly from the Cayman Islands toward Honduras, moving generally west. Conditions around the system are slightly on the favorable side, so it has a bit of a chance to develop. It only has until overnight tonight to develop, however, as by then it will have reached the Yucatan Peninsula.

It has about a 20-30% shot, but its looking rather well this morning. As of 8AM, it is being tracked as an official Invest, designated 93L. This is worth watching to see if it develops today, as this area is a prime area for Development in late June.

The National Hurricane center in their Outlook is focusing on the wave (surface low), rather than the Mid Level Circulation, at the moment, but both may work their way together. Currently the convection (to the northeast) is away from the center (which is further to the south and west) and may be dispersing. This helps to keep the system from developing at all, which is the most likely outcome. If it survives the Yucatan, it will be worth watching then as it may be near the western or central Gulf of Mexico.



More to come....

{{StormLinks|93L|93|2|2009|1|93L}}

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching the Gulf, but Not Expecting anything for the week. MikeCAdministrator Fri Jun 26 2009 08:10 AM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 gatorman   Mon Jul 13 2009 05:09 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 M.A.   Mon Jul 13 2009 04:51 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Lee-Delray   Mon Jul 13 2009 07:58 AM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 10 2009 10:32 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 gatorman   Fri Jul 10 2009 08:41 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Jane   Fri Jul 10 2009 07:06 PM
. * * El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 10 2009 05:41 PM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 02 2009 03:17 PM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch gatorman   Thu Jul 02 2009 10:42 AM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch scottsvb   Thu Jul 02 2009 10:20 AM
. * * 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 02 2009 07:32 AM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. cieldumort   Sun Jun 28 2009 06:16 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. hogrunr   Sun Jun 28 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 28 2009 03:54 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. cieldumort   Sun Jun 28 2009 01:36 PM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM doug   Sun Jun 28 2009 07:32 AM
. * * area east of florida Robert   Sun Jun 28 2009 04:49 AM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM dem05   Sun Jun 28 2009 02:45 AM
. * * 93L Nearing the GOM danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 27 2009 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday OrlandoDan   Sat Jun 27 2009 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 27 2009 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday docrod   Fri Jun 26 2009 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday cieldumort   Fri Jun 26 2009 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday LadyStorm   Fri Jun 26 2009 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday cieldumort   Fri Jun 26 2009 04:36 PM
. * * Western Caribbean System in GOM Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday CDMOrlando   Fri Jun 26 2009 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up LoisCane   Fri Jun 26 2009 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up HCW   Fri Jun 26 2009 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:52 AM

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