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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)
 


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dem05
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: 93L Nearing the GOM
      Sun Jun 28 2009 02:45 AM

I love this site, but unfortunately, life called and pulled me away...so I've been away from posting for a long while. I hope I am back.

I'm going to have to do a little point counterpoint on 93L this evening. This is not one to give up on just yet. Per the pre-satellite eclipse images I am seeing late tonight, I am finally starting to see what I have been waiting for, and it is a sign that this little disturbance may finally be pulling in through very subtle means. But before I get to that discussion, it's important to recap where 93L has been today (appearance wise), and more improtantly...why.

Earlier today, most gave up on 93L, by afternoon, many believed that something was happenning as far as a mid level roation and better organization. What we actually saw at mid day today was a true trough (tropical wave axis) off of the Yucatan and Belize. As the afternoon wore on, a wind and moisture surge swung out of the SE from offshore of the Nicaragua and Hondoras portion of the Carribean. With that, thunderstoms took off. Why? convergence from multiple angles and directions. As such, this moisture surge raced up the wave from SSE to NNW and produced nice convective bursting and some turning. Also, with the changing and veering winds, we may have seen an assembalance of mid-level rotation. I first watched this area to see if these veering winds would create a sustainable mid-level low that could translate to the surface, but this surge continued to run up the wave without stalling. In the the end, there was nothing much to be left in the wake of this surge except for collapsing convection and colliding outflow boundries, some of which led to some pulsing (popcorn) thunderstoms and a slight hint of a weak mid level vorticity.

At this point (2:30AM), depending on the satellite view you visit, this system is a mess and all appears to be over. But using the tools that paint the best picture at night (Shortwave in this instance), we can see that a mid-level votex is assembling a better presentation(without compitition from other mid level vorts and or colliding boundries). This low is east of cancun in the basic area where the activity was most interesting this afternoon. The activity may not look that impressive now, but the low cloud deck is increasing (noted through the darkening grey scale on the loop. Link below.). That activity may be a sign of upcoming organization and increased thunderstorm activity...as such activity has been seen in past developments...so we may come out of the satellite eclipse to find some okay looking thunderstorm activity and/or a system that is more consolidated than it has been in the past. This still may be something to watch.

P.S. Mods are also right, the Gulf may not be as friendly as previously thought during the next 24 hours or so. This may make it even more interesting if this area off of Cancun is an area that takes charge...as this area is slightly protected from those hostile winds at the moment.

Shortwave Loop

Edited by dem05 (Sun Jun 28 2009 03:04 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching the Gulf, but Not Expecting anything for the week. MikeCAdministrator Sun Jun 28 2009 02:45 AM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 gatorman   Mon Jul 13 2009 05:09 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 M.A.   Mon Jul 13 2009 04:51 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Lee-Delray   Mon Jul 13 2009 07:58 AM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 10 2009 10:32 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 gatorman   Fri Jul 10 2009 08:41 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Jane   Fri Jul 10 2009 07:06 PM
. * * El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 10 2009 05:41 PM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 02 2009 03:17 PM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch gatorman   Thu Jul 02 2009 10:42 AM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch scottsvb   Thu Jul 02 2009 10:20 AM
. * * 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 02 2009 07:32 AM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. cieldumort   Sun Jun 28 2009 06:16 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. hogrunr   Sun Jun 28 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 28 2009 03:54 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. cieldumort   Sun Jun 28 2009 01:36 PM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM doug   Sun Jun 28 2009 07:32 AM
. * * area east of florida Robert   Sun Jun 28 2009 04:49 AM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM dem05   Sun Jun 28 2009 02:45 AM
. * * 93L Nearing the GOM danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 27 2009 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday OrlandoDan   Sat Jun 27 2009 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 27 2009 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday docrod   Fri Jun 26 2009 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday cieldumort   Fri Jun 26 2009 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday LadyStorm   Fri Jun 26 2009 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday cieldumort   Fri Jun 26 2009 04:36 PM
. * * Western Caribbean System in GOM Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday CDMOrlando   Fri Jun 26 2009 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up LoisCane   Fri Jun 26 2009 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up HCW   Fri Jun 26 2009 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:52 AM

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