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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 93L Nearing the GOM
      Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM

All of the Floater satellite shots are indicating a distinct vortice near/ over Cancun at this time.
Latest METARs from the Cozumel and Cancun airports support the satellite observations.

Cozumel:
MMCZ 281145Z 14003KT 7SM SCT015TCU BKN080 OVC200 24/24 A2987 RMK SLP108 57015 900 8/277 DSNT CBS 3,4 QDTE (edit distant thunderstorms SW & NW Quadrants...Cancun area, Cozumel pressure 1010.8mb)
MMCZ 281045Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 BKN080 24/24 A2986 RMK 8/470 DSTN CBS LTG W
(edit-distant thunderstorms and lightning to the west...Cancun Area)

Cancun:
MMUN 281148Z 00000KT 4SM -RA BKN010CB BKN090 24/23 A2988 RMK SLP111 57006 956 60055 8/360 (edit-calm wind,light rain,1000ft ceiling and thunderstorm pressure 1011.1mb)
MMUN 281043Z 00000KT 5SM RA BKN015CB OVC090 24/23 A2987 RMK 60095 8/36/

Convective Hot Tower is noted on the current satellite photos in the immediate vicinity of Cancun,MX. Nearly in the center of the vorticity center,
Cancun Radar is out of service so I am using the surface observations in place of the radar.

I'm not going to write this one off yet. I'll wait to see what happens when the vorticity center moves offshore.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
222 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

VALID JUN 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 01/1200 UTC
(edited~danielw)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...

RECOMMENDATION: EXCLUDE THE WEAKER GFS FOR SURFACE LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE
IN ALLOWING THE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EMERGE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...
WHILE THE GFS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HRS. GIVEN ITS REASONABLE ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AT LEAST A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
EXIST...
A SOLUTION TOWARD THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE PLUME
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE PARTIALLY PULLED
INTO THE BROAD LOWER/MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REFER TO THE QPFPFD FOR MORE INFORMATION.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PMDHMD&max=61

Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 28 2009 09:23 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching the Gulf, but Not Expecting anything for the week. MikeCAdministrator Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 gatorman   Mon Jul 13 2009 05:09 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 M.A.   Mon Jul 13 2009 04:51 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Lee-Delray   Mon Jul 13 2009 07:58 AM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 10 2009 10:32 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 gatorman   Fri Jul 10 2009 08:41 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Jane   Fri Jul 10 2009 07:06 PM
. * * El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 10 2009 05:41 PM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 02 2009 03:17 PM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch gatorman   Thu Jul 02 2009 10:42 AM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch scottsvb   Thu Jul 02 2009 10:20 AM
. * * 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 02 2009 07:32 AM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. cieldumort   Sun Jun 28 2009 06:16 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. hogrunr   Sun Jun 28 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 28 2009 03:54 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. cieldumort   Sun Jun 28 2009 01:36 PM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM doug   Sun Jun 28 2009 07:32 AM
. * * area east of florida Robert   Sun Jun 28 2009 04:49 AM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM dem05   Sun Jun 28 2009 02:45 AM
. * * 93L Nearing the GOM danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 27 2009 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday OrlandoDan   Sat Jun 27 2009 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 27 2009 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday docrod   Fri Jun 26 2009 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday cieldumort   Fri Jun 26 2009 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday LadyStorm   Fri Jun 26 2009 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday cieldumort   Fri Jun 26 2009 04:36 PM
. * * Western Caribbean System in GOM Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday CDMOrlando   Fri Jun 26 2009 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up LoisCane   Fri Jun 26 2009 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up HCW   Fri Jun 26 2009 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:52 AM

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