As expected, Hurricane Felicia is maintaining it's intensity at 140 mph, with Gusts as high as 165 mph, and remains a Powerful Category 4 Storm.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED IN THE EYEWALL OF FELICIA ... WITH THE HURRICANE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN ... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 120 KTS.
The good news is that it appears to have peaked in intensity and will gradually begin to wind down as it tracks over cooler SST's and begins to feel the effects of increasing Westerly Shear in the coming days.
For today however, Felicia will continue to be a MAJOR Cat 3or4 Hurricane, as evidenced by this Animated Visible Loop of the storm since Sunrise, local basin time, about 4 hours ago as I pen.
The latest forecast issued a few hours ago by the good folks at the NHC in Maimi are now expecting that 'Felicia' will arrive in the Islands around Tuesday morning, likely no stronger than a Tropical Depression.
Having said that, there's a few 'Flies in the Ointment' that cannot be completely dismissed, which can effect both the track and, more significantly, the intensity of Felicia when she shows up in our neighborhood early next week ...
FELICIA IS DEMONSTRATING SOME ANNULAR HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS ... AND WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ... WHICH COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER MARGINAL SSTS.
... Additionally ...
ALTHOUGH SSTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ... WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG ... WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS ...
The operative words here are 'expected' and 'should'. Considering the preceeding paragraph and, should the wind shear not materialize as early or as be quite as strong as the the model guidance is suggesting, we *could* have a Tropical Storm on a somewhat more northerly track, as a storm still retaining some of it's deep convection would not be effected *as much* as a weaker, shallow & sheared system, by the low-level tradewind flow.
Next advisory out in 20 minutes ... Will post an update shortly. Hope the news is better !!
Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Aug 06 2009 05:16 PM)
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