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News Talkback >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

MikeC
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL

Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models
Fri Aug 14 2009 08:14 AM

90L is likely to become TD#3 today, and some of the long range models are interesting. It's the lounge category because these models tend to get wacky at long range. Anything you see here past 4 days or so probably will not happen, but it's interesting to note the trends from day to day on these.

It may get near the US around August 24th.

I'll do a model rundown here:

CMC -- Out 6 days, approaching Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.
GFDL - Approaching just to the north of the LeewardIslands.
GFS - Into Leeward Islands... Through Puerto Rico, clipping Hispaniola, through the Straights of Florida into the Gulf and into Louisiana. (Fantasyland at that far out)

Strength wise it may get larger, weaken somewhat and then fluctuate. If it gets in the Gulf all bets are off, if it stays east, then it'll likely run into more shear but still be fairly large.

At this point I would take the models with a huge grain of salt. Around 15N 50W is a good aim point to determine how likely the Leewards and Puerto Rico will see the storm. If it's south or just at that point, it'll be more likely for them to see something.

There are other indication that the ridge may weaken, which would open a hole for it to recurve. (EURO/HRWF) as well. So in short at that far out it is anyone's guess.

Otherwise there is a good week to 10 days to watch this system.

Into the Caribbean is also a possibility.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Fri Aug 14 2009 08:14 AM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Sun Aug 16 2009 03:15 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	ftlaudbob	Sun Aug 16 2009 03:31 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Hurikid	Sun Aug 16 2009 04:28 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Tue Aug 18 2009 09:19 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Evan Johnson	Wed Aug 19 2009 03:18 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MichaelA	Thu Aug 20 2009 10:42 AM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	doug	Thu Aug 20 2009 02:13 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Ed in Va	Thu Aug 20 2009 02:33 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	doug	Thu Aug 20 2009 03:27 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Ed in Va	Thu Aug 20 2009 03:36 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	doug	Thu Aug 20 2009 03:41 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Thu Aug 20 2009 04:23 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Ed in Va	Thu Aug 20 2009 04:30 PM
Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	ftlaudbob	Thu Aug 20 2009 03:38 PM
Re: Bill lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses	ftlaudbob	Sun Aug 16 2009 12:15 PM
Re: T.D. #2 - ......it's back again	B.C.Francis	Sat Aug 15 2009 05:47 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	weathernet	Fri Aug 14 2009 04:45 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Lamar-Plant City	Fri Aug 14 2009 09:12 AM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Fri Aug 14 2009 12:37 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Fri Aug 14 2009 06:25 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Evan Johnson	Fri Aug 14 2009 07:17 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Sat Aug 15 2009 07:52 AM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Johncn	Sat Aug 15 2009 06:57 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Evan Johnson	Sat Aug 15 2009 07:20 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Johncn	Sat Aug 15 2009 07:51 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Evan Johnson	Sat Aug 15 2009 10:08 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Johncn	Sat Aug 15 2009 11:14 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Hurikid	Sun Aug 16 2009 08:38 AM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	weathernet	Sun Aug 16 2009 12:56 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	ftlaudbob	Fri Aug 14 2009 12:59 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Evan Johnson	Fri Aug 14 2009 02:41 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Fri Aug 14 2009 02:46 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Evan Johnson	Fri Aug 14 2009 02:49 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	MikeC	Fri Aug 14 2009 02:50 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Evan Johnson	Fri Aug 14 2009 02:53 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	saluki	Fri Aug 14 2009 03:20 PM
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models	Evan Johnson	Fri Aug 14 2009 03:39 PM

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