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Re: TD#2 No Longer, 90L May Develop Tomorrow
Fri Aug 14 2009 10:40 AM
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"Real World" likelyhood is that your family will be enjoying a nice hot ( sweltering maybe ) sunny day with Mickey and friends, while in Orlando during their stay. This is based on random chance of a yet developed storm hitting any one given spot, with over 2,000 miles of ocean to traverse. Any storm could move slightly slower or faster for a couple days, which over time could mean different steering mechanisms might be in place to impact where in the world any storm could eventually go.
Now, meteorologically......, if someone gave me a wad of money and told me I had to bet on any one place where a hurricane would be most likely to hit. Then or course all one could do is use those tools in place, and perhaps use history as yet another tool to further figure out "best guess". In general, my best guess would be that on or near that date, a hurricane ( assuming this E. Atlantic wave develops ) will be hitting or near the Bahamas. Even if I or some models were right, Eastern Bahamas vs. Nassau/Freeport?? Moving NNW or westward?? Thats not even taking into consideration that any direct hit to Hispanola or E. Cuba has seriously destroyed or impacted the structure of many past hurricanes ( assuming one makes landfall there ). Even a good educated guess, could spell a weekening Tropical Storm moving south of the Keys, or an intense hurricane impacting Jacksonville or the Panhandle. Either of those scenarios won't keep you from standing in long lines waiting for Magic Mountain.
So, does Florida have a better chance of being hit on that weekend than New York, Costa Rica, or perhaps even Bermuda? Well, at this moment in time.....most models would say yes. However, this far out....., 12 hours from now, those projections could all be out the window.
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