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Tonight "the calm before the storm" and time to finish preps. Even now, high precipitable water and instability values ahead of Beryl are triggering flash flood threats with rainfall rates up to over 3"/Hr #Beryl #TXWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Idalia) , Major: 311 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 311 (Idalia) Major: 311 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#34A 7:00 am EDT
24.9N 94.3W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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News Talkback >> 2009 Forecast Lounge
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Admin Note
      Sat Aug 15 2009 10:54 PM

While it is true that the Forecast Lounge is not as strictly moderated, it is also true that an extreme forecast without any rationale amounts to hype - which is not permitted. If we allowed it, we would be no better than some of the other sites on the net where almost anything goes - and we at least strive (not always successfully) to be a little bit more informative and a little less unstructured. It actually usually works out for the benefit of most folks when things really get threatening. Trust goes a long way when you want to know whats really going on. If a storm is going to be really bad, some of the knowledgeable folks on the site will be the first to let you know.

It is worth noting that the initial tropical model suite from NHC places the storm inland in the Louisiana/Mississippi area in 48 hours and the SHIPS model suggests a maximum wind speed of 40 knots at landfall - but only if it organizes better than it currently is.
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Forcast for GOM wave mwillis Sat Aug 15 2009 10:54 PM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 15 2009 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Admin Note mwillis   Sat Aug 15 2009 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 15 2009 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Admin Note mwillis   Sat Aug 15 2009 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Admin Note MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 16 2009 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Admin Note Johncn   Sun Aug 16 2009 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Forcast for GOM wave kevin_1   Sat Aug 15 2009 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Forcast for GOM wave MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 15 2009 10:10 PM

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