Am fascinated how the European model ( often one of the more respected ), had forecasted yesterday a much more "poleward" track than nearly all other models. In fact, given the GFS 500mb data, I would have bet my last dollar that at minimum, this storm would have a 270 degree motion for at least 48 hours. Heck, what would seem to be quite a respectible 594mb heights at the mid levels, would seem to prevent any temporarty change in latitude. Naturally, the orientation of any mid level troughs or high pressure ridges have as much to do with overall motion as well. Here is where the data as we see it reported and spit out by computers, is so important. Forget 7-10 day forecasts, so much importance exists simply for accurate current analysis.
So much for my meteorological diatribe on the importance for proper funding towards the necessary tools to aquire more thorough and accurate data, thus to aid and advance the science of meteorology....
As Bill continues to deepen, I can only imagine that any low level steering influence would become fully irrelevent, and that most models would have a much better handle on future motion. Of course, this has now occured, and much more confidence exists today, than yesterday. This said, is New York or other points on the E. Coast out of the picture yet? I would say no. Recent patterns across the Conus, would seem to have more cut off lows dropping out of Hudson Bay, but only to drop south a little, and then get caught up in a fairly progressive westerly flow. This flow has been shunted fairly north, and there have been less hanging troughs off the Eastern seaboard than in numerious other years. Timing is everything, and Bill could eventually go through substantial deepening and slow down a little, or maintain a slightly more westward track than forecast due to its relative larger size. Point being, that if a weekness does in fact cause Bill to move more northwestward towards the later end of the forecast, if such a weakness pulls up fairly quickly, and strong ridging builds ( or bridges ) over the western Atlantic, than a bend back towards the WNW could ensue. All the more reason that the entire Eastern seaboard need pay attention.
Way to far out for anyone to have much confidence in any forecast. For the moment, my best guess would be a bend back towards the Carolina's. No doubt, i'll be paying a bit more attention to the Euro long range, than most of the other models with this one.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models
Edit
Reply
Quote
