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The area near the Yucatan Peninsula (now Invest 99L) has a 30% chance for development over the next 5 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 339 (Nicholas) , Major: 354 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1408 (Michael) Major: 1408 (Michael)
 


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ana Part Three??, Bill a Cat 2
      Tue Aug 18 2009 07:27 AM

The eye is clearly visible. NRL Microwave data shows a large eye having formed, about 60-75NM wide. Deep convection has wrapped around half the semicircle, and IR shows that the southeastern weak spot in the Microwave data has since filled in.

Advanced Dvorak Technique is showing a big jump in ADT T-Numbers evident, as seen from this image, which would indicate that pressure and winds will likely catch up to the structural changes soon.

Bill is still over relatively cool water (27-28C) but will be moving into warmer (28-29C) water later today, and 29-30C water by sometime tomorrow. The southern reaches of the storm are probably over the 28-29C water already, which may account for the persistently stronger convection in that semicircle over the past day.

Models are coming into slightly closer agreement today than yesterday on the track of Bill. They should all be well initialized by now with the deep tropical cyclone. If you live anywhere from Georgia through Maine, and the Canadian Maritimes plus Bermuda, you should keep an eye on this storm. I have seen tracks that go anywhere from a direct hit on Bermuda, keeping the storm way out to sea, to a system that U's just off the mid-Atlantic seaboard affecting almost every state along the East Coast from NC to Maine. It's way too far out to know for sure what Bill will do, but with this large a spread in the extended range of the major models combined with Bill's strength, everyone needs to watch.

And here's Bill:



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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 18 2009 07:27 AM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex Random Chaos   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:02 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea Mag   Wed Aug 19 2009 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 18 2009 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex WeatherNut   Tue Aug 18 2009 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex JMII   Tue Aug 18 2009 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex Random Chaos   Tue Aug 18 2009 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex WeatherNut   Tue Aug 18 2009 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex Random Chaos   Tue Aug 18 2009 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex Hugh   Tue Aug 18 2009 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex craigm   Tue Aug 18 2009 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Bill Vortex Random Chaos   Tue Aug 18 2009 05:54 PM
. * * Bill Vortex danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 18 2009 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 18 2009 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea WeatherNut   Tue Aug 18 2009 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea LoisCane   Tue Aug 18 2009 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea JMII   Tue Aug 18 2009 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 02L? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 18 2009 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea JoshuaK   Tue Aug 18 2009 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea mwillis   Tue Aug 18 2009 12:21 PM
. * * almost due west SeaMule   Tue Aug 18 2009 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea WeatherNut   Tue Aug 18 2009 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane Lamar-Plant City   Tue Aug 18 2009 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane 103177   Tue Aug 18 2009 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane Random Chaos   Tue Aug 18 2009 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane ltpat228   Tue Aug 18 2009 08:06 AM
. * * heading SeaMule   Tue Aug 18 2009 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Ana Part Three??, Bill a Cat 2 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 18 2009 07:27 AM
. * * Ana Part Three??, Bill a Cat 2 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 18 2009 04:45 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane BillD   Tue Aug 18 2009 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane mwillis   Mon Aug 17 2009 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane WeatherNut   Mon Aug 17 2009 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Ana Deux Random Chaos   Mon Aug 17 2009 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Ana Deux 103177   Mon Aug 17 2009 05:04 PM
. * * Ana Deux danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 17 2009 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 17 2009 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 17 2009 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane HCW   Mon Aug 17 2009 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane LoisCane   Mon Aug 17 2009 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 17 2009 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane Ed in Va   Mon Aug 17 2009 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane Hurikid   Mon Aug 17 2009 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 17 2009 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane Ed in Va   Mon Aug 17 2009 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane JoshuaK   Mon Aug 17 2009 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane OrlandoDan   Mon Aug 17 2009 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane JMII   Mon Aug 17 2009 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 17 2009 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane mikethewreck   Mon Aug 17 2009 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane Ed in Va   Mon Aug 17 2009 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 17 2009 10:22 AM

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