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Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday
      Wed Aug 19 2009 06:57 AM

11AM EDT 22 Aug 2009 Update
Cat II Bill is now heading north and slowly weakening and with an anticipated turn to the northeast, Bill could brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday. Environmental Canada has issued appropriate warnings. NHC has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for eastern Massachusetts for this evening/tonight as follows:

"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET."

During last night and through this morning the winds at Hamilton, Bermuda, have been steady at about 40mph with gusts to 55mph. Late yesterday evening, Commissioners Point reported a wind gust to 97mph.

The wave in the eastern Atlantic remains disorganized.
ED

5 PM EDT 21 Aug 2009 Update
Bill has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, and is bringing winds and rain to Bermuda tonight. Bill is still in very good conditions for development and appears to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle, it could restrengthen again before hitting cooler waters.\

Bill is no longer expected to affect New England with winds, but Canada must remain watch. The possibility of recurving out to sea without landfall is also once again high.

In the east Atlantic we are watching a wave that has a <30% chance to develop over the next few days, no invest designation has been placed on this area as of yet.

4 PM EDT 20 Aug 2009 Update
A hurricane Watch is now up for the islands of Bermuda.

Bermuda Radar
Bermuda Weather Service Webcam Recording
Current Weather at Hamilton

8 AM EDT 20 Aug 2009 Update
Bill has weakened somewhat overnight, but is expected to restrengthen as shear lessens.

Tomorrow conditions are complex so it could gain or lose some strength depending on how much the trough interacts with it.

Most likely it will not landfall in New England, but it is by no means totally conifdent in that. The chances for landfall, although less, are still there.

The forecast track still keeps it offshore, but Cape Cod and parts of New England (Ie Boston/Cape Cod, northward) are going to be very close to it and need to watch it. Landfall in Canada still seems the most likely.


Today and Tomorrow may be stressful for those trying to determine what will happen, especially in the case of a large storm with the edge of the cone in your area, but most models are pulling it right quickly. Some, such as the GFS move it further west.

Original Update
Hurricane BIll strengthened into a category four hurricane overnight, with 135MPH winds. It may be a bit stronger than that, but determination will have to wait until another Aircraft recon gets there.

Bill likely will stay strong for the next two days until it begins to weaken.

All indicators are that Bill will stay offshore of the United States, with a small chance that it could affect extreme eastern portions of Massachusetts. Still, the most likely outcome is that it stays far enough out to sea that I think Bermuda should have more concern than that. The Eastern Canadian Provinces have a good chance, though, for a landfall from Bill. Although it should be weaker that it is now at that time, it still will be fairly strong. See the {{CHC}}



In short, New England needs to watch for Changes, Newfoundland in Canada really needs to pay attention, it could still be hurricane strength when it approaches there.

The remnants of Ana are beginning to affect Florida now with extra rain.

Outside of that, the last wave off Africa fell apart, but there is always a chance the next one could form. Outside of that, there is nothing else going on at the moment.

{{radarlink|byx|Key West Florida}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami Florida}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Florida}}
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Florida}}


{{StormLinks|Bill|03|3|2009|2|Bill}}

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 22 2009 11:23 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 19 2009 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 23 2009 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday blizzardnut   Sun Aug 23 2009 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday scottsvb   Sun Aug 23 2009 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday JoshuaK   Sun Aug 23 2009 06:56 AM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday MichaelA   Sat Aug 22 2009 05:24 PM
. * * Week Ahead danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 22 2009 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday blizzardnut   Sat Aug 22 2009 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Bill weakens some more, No Direct Impact to New England Kent   Fri Aug 21 2009 11:52 PM
. * * Re: MJO Forecast scottsvb   Fri Aug 21 2009 11:44 AM
. * * Re: MJO Forecast Ed in Va   Fri Aug 21 2009 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Bill presentation doug   Fri Aug 21 2009 09:36 AM
. * * Re: MJO Forecast LoisCane   Fri Aug 21 2009 08:44 AM
. * * MJO Forecast danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 21 2009 07:28 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US M.A.   Fri Aug 21 2009 07:00 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Random Chaos   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US hogrunr   Thu Aug 20 2009 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MichaelA   Thu Aug 20 2009 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 20 2009 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US WeatherNut   Thu Aug 20 2009 11:45 AM
. * * Bill at Cat 4 danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 20 2009 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MichaelA   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US hogrunr   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Hugh   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US doug   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Fairhopian   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Bill weakens Some, New England/Canada Needs to Watch blizzardnut   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Ed in Va   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Beach   Wed Aug 19 2009 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Random Chaos   Wed Aug 19 2009 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US JoshuaK   Wed Aug 19 2009 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Fairhopian   Wed Aug 19 2009 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 19 2009 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US WeatherNut   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US craigm   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US doug   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Wed Aug 19 2009 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US doug   Wed Aug 19 2009 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MichaelA   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MichaelA   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Fairhopian   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Ed in Va   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Wed Aug 19 2009 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 19 2009 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US sailor   Wed Aug 19 2009 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US gatorman   Wed Aug 19 2009 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Beach   Wed Aug 19 2009 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US doug   Wed Aug 19 2009 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Tropicbird   Wed Aug 19 2009 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Wed Aug 19 2009 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US berserkr   Wed Aug 19 2009 07:05 AM

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