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94L organizing well east of the Caribbean with a high chance of developing. NW Gulf also an area to watch next week. Busy for June.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 285 (Nicholas) , Major: 300 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1354 (Michael) Major: 1354 (Michael)
 


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US
      Wed Aug 19 2009 03:01 PM

While it is still very likely to miss the U.S. directly, nobody in New England should be turning their back on Bill right now. The developing upper-level trough will act like a brick wall that will keep Bill from making it very far west, but the exact evolution of the trough is yet to be determined. The extent to which the trough deepens and the timing of shortwave troughs ejecting from the main trough will determine whether Bill gets tugged on more of a northerly path, making a closer approach to the U.S., or gets shoved off more to the northeast away from the coast. The recent tendency of the models to nudge the track further west is a little worrisome, though the reliable models still send Bill somewhere into the Canadian maritimes.

Cape Cod, Nantucket, and parts of the Maine coast are all in the 5-day NHC forecast cone, so people in those areas should have a plan and be ready to put it into effect on short notice. Bill has a large circulation, so even without a direct hit, a more westerly approach could cause tropical storm force winds to affect the New England coast. Keep in mind, though, that by the time Bill gets caught up in the trough and begins to accelerate, the west side of the system will be much weaker than the east side, which could spare New England some problems. A more westerly approach would also likely cause more of a significant direct hit somewhere in the Canadian maritimes, rather than a glancing blow in those areas.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 19 2009 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 23 2009 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday blizzardnut   Sun Aug 23 2009 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday scottsvb   Sun Aug 23 2009 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday JoshuaK   Sun Aug 23 2009 06:56 AM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday MichaelA   Sat Aug 22 2009 05:24 PM
. * * Week Ahead danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 22 2009 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday blizzardnut   Sat Aug 22 2009 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Bill weakens some more, No Direct Impact to New England Kent   Fri Aug 21 2009 11:52 PM
. * * Re: MJO Forecast scottsvb   Fri Aug 21 2009 11:44 AM
. * * Re: MJO Forecast Ed in Va   Fri Aug 21 2009 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Bill presentation doug   Fri Aug 21 2009 09:36 AM
. * * Re: MJO Forecast LoisCane   Fri Aug 21 2009 08:44 AM
. * * MJO Forecast danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 21 2009 07:28 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US M.A.   Fri Aug 21 2009 07:00 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Random Chaos   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US hogrunr   Thu Aug 20 2009 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MichaelA   Thu Aug 20 2009 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 20 2009 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US WeatherNut   Thu Aug 20 2009 11:45 AM
. * * Bill at Cat 4 danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 20 2009 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MichaelA   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US hogrunr   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Hugh   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US doug   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Fairhopian   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Bill weakens Some, New England/Canada Needs to Watch blizzardnut   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Ed in Va   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Thu Aug 20 2009 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Beach   Wed Aug 19 2009 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Random Chaos   Wed Aug 19 2009 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US JoshuaK   Wed Aug 19 2009 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Fairhopian   Wed Aug 19 2009 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 19 2009 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US WeatherNut   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US craigm   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US doug   Wed Aug 19 2009 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Wed Aug 19 2009 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US doug   Wed Aug 19 2009 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MichaelA   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MichaelA   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Fairhopian   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Ed in Va   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Wed Aug 19 2009 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 19 2009 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US sailor   Wed Aug 19 2009 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US gatorman   Wed Aug 19 2009 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Beach   Wed Aug 19 2009 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US doug   Wed Aug 19 2009 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US Tropicbird   Wed Aug 19 2009 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US LoisCane   Wed Aug 19 2009 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US berserkr   Wed Aug 19 2009 07:05 AM

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