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vpbob21
Weather Guru

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Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio

Re: HILDA Still Organizing, 'Hawaiian Hurricane' Likely
Tue Aug 25 2009 10:45 PM

Hilda is looking quite anemic tonight. The convection had pretty much disappeared earlier, then there was another little burst and now that seems to be dying out. The 11 AM discussion suggested that perhaps dry air had gotten entrained into the circulation. But for whatever reason, Hilda has been weakening and is no longer forecast to reach hurricane strength.

Hilda is a small storm, and small storms are quite sensitive to adverse atmospheric conditions. It seems to be in that zone now where it could develop a big burst of convection and take off, or the thunderstorms might not refire and it might just spin down. I don't have a good feeling what might happen, but the next couple CPHC discussions should be interesting. Anyway, the weakening trend will probably ensure that it will likely be a shallow system and stay south of the islands.

Edit: Of course, almost as soon as I typed this a big burst of convection fired. We'll see if it stays persistant.

Edited by vpbob21 (Wed Aug 26 2009 01:44 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
HILDA Still Organizing, 'Hawaiian Hurricane' Likely	CoconutCandy	Tue Aug 25 2009 10:45 PM
Re: HILDA Still Organizing, 'Hawaiian Hurricane' Likely	vpbob21	Fri Aug 28 2009 10:27 PM
Re: HILDA Still Organizing, 'Hawaiian Hurricane' Likely	vpbob21	Tue Aug 25 2009 10:45 PM

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