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Tropical Storm Erika Forms East of the Leeward Islands
      Sun Aug 30 2009 07:54 AM

4:50 PM EDT 1 Sep 2009 Update
More to Come soon, but the wave known as 94L has become Tropical Storm Erika.

It is moving West Northwest at 9MPH, and has 50mph winds.

The forecast track has it east of the Bahamas in 120 hours, and after that depends on how strong or weak the system gets. If it gets stronger, it will likely move more north and out to sea, while a weaker system will likely stay more westward.


6:20 AM EDT 1 Sep 2009 Update
The wave east of the Caribbean is looking good on satellite, but is missing the low level circulation it needs to become a tropical cyclone. This morning there are actually signs of that happening, but all the convection and storm energy seems to be the east of it. This is due to persistent shearing in the area keeping it a bit disorganized, which has been common this year. Ie, the low level is doing one thing, while the mid level is doing another.

Martinique Radar

It still has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a depression in the next 48 hours. By 11AM is likely today.

With the weaker system, the more west it goes. Those in the Leeward islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico will want to continue to watch this system. Models still have not been handling the initialization of the system well. However, the GFDL model, now no longer dissipates the system. Until this gets organized it is impossible to say if it will have any impact on the US or not, again odds are slightly in favor of it staying out to sea. The forecast for this system will likely be more difficult than most.



The other wave east of the Bahamas is mostly an upper level feature, but it has been persistent. But there are currently no signs of a low level move that would allow for development.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Jimena has become a strong Category 4 Hurricane nearing a Category 5, and is expected to landfall in Mexico along the Baja California Peninsula as a Category 3 hurricane .



9:40 AM EDT 31 Aug 2009 Update
There is a better chance this morning that a depression will form from 94L. The overall structure is there, but the convection around the center still lacks (see dvorak estimates). It looks fairly well this morning so it may become a depression at 11AM. There is some shear ahead of it, which may keep it from organizing, and also the circulation center is not under most of the convection, this may keep it from being upgraded.

The Windward islands of the Caribbean still need to watch 94L closely, and longer range models have bent back further west, which will keep the Bahamas and the southeast US in a monitor mode until it gets closer. Recon aircraft will start to head out there tomorrow.

Odds this year favor systems out to sea, but 94L has a better than usual chance of breaking it and heading more west. We will have to monitor it..

The wave east of the Bahamas (has no invest number) has little low level activity and is not likely to develop soon, it too is worth watching to see if anything changes with it.

Original Update
The wave east of the Caribbean, 94L, has survived the last few days weak, and moved more west. It is now poised to develop today or tomorrow, it has greater than a 50% chance to develop within the next 48 hours.

Most forecast models have had a terrible time with this system, trending it north incorrectly over and over again. It remaining weak and mostly low level has kept it more on a westerly track. If and until this develops, the models will not be of much worth with it. That said, those in the Leeward and Windward Caribbean islands need to watch this system. It may strengthen some then weaken again. There is some shear north of the system, so the further south and west it stays the more chance it has for survival.

If it does develop movement to the northwest and north is more likely, and the odds are that it will not affect the US if it does.



The best course of action is to continue to wait and see what occurs with the system.

Other things to watch include a smaller wave north of the Lesser Antilles, and energy in the Southwestern Caribbean for any persistence.

{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|6|2009|2|94L}}

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Erika Forms East of the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 30 2009 07:54 AM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hugh   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:48 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hawkeyewx   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:28 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hugh   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:54 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion berrywr   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Forms East of the northern Leeward Islands Hugh   Tue Sep 01 2009 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Forms East of the northern Leeward Islands ftlaudbob   Tue Sep 01 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Forms East of the northern Leeward Islands Evan Johnson   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:55 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Erika Forms East of the northern Leeward Islands Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:50 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:49 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion MichaelA   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:42 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion scottsvb   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:38 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:37 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:31 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:15 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:13 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 01 2009 03:58 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 03:31 PM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 03:29 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hugh   Tue Sep 01 2009 02:56 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hawkeyewx   Tue Sep 01 2009 02:51 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 02:47 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hugh   Tue Sep 01 2009 02:43 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 02:34 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hugh   Tue Sep 01 2009 02:28 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 02:25 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion weathernet   Tue Sep 01 2009 02:25 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion weathernet   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:53 PM
. * * Posts danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:48 PM
. * * 94L danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:42 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Beach   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:28 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hawkeyewx   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:21 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion Hugh   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:17 PM
. * * Re: 94L weathernet   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:16 PM
. * * Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion scottsvb   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:03 PM
. * * HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion berrywr   Tue Sep 01 2009 12:26 PM
. * * NWSFO - San Juan - Area Forecast Discussion berrywr   Tue Sep 01 2009 12:25 PM
. * * Re: 94L berrywr   Tue Sep 01 2009 12:14 PM
. * * Re: 94L berrywr   Tue Sep 01 2009 12:02 PM
. * * Re: 94L danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 94L MichaelA   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:40 AM
. * * Re: 94L Evan Johnson   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:29 AM
. * * Re: 94L MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:09 AM
. * * Re: 94L JMII   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:04 AM
. * * Re: 94L Hugh   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:00 AM
. * * Re: 94L LoisCane   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:43 AM
. * * Re: 94L craigm   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:33 AM
. * * Re: 94L Hawkeyewx   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:36 AM
. * * Re: 94L LoisCane   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:26 AM
. * * Re: 94L Hawkeyewx   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:27 AM
. * * Re: 94L and GOM? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:20 AM
. * * Re: 94L OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:28 AM
. * * 94L danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:23 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow berrywr   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow ncskywarn   Tue Sep 01 2009 04:54 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow hurricane expert   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow ncskywarn   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow flanewscameraman   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow blue flash   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow JoshuaK   Tue Sep 01 2009 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow LoisCane   Mon Aug 31 2009 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow cieldumort   Mon Aug 31 2009 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 31 2009 08:45 PM
. * * looking impressive SeaMule   Mon Aug 31 2009 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Beach   Mon Aug 31 2009 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow doug   Mon Aug 31 2009 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow craigm   Mon Aug 31 2009 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 31 2009 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow cieldumort   Mon Aug 31 2009 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 31 2009 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow WeatherNut   Mon Aug 31 2009 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow cieldumort   Mon Aug 31 2009 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Ed in Va   Mon Aug 31 2009 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Tazmanian93   Mon Aug 31 2009 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow cieldumort   Mon Aug 31 2009 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 31 2009 10:27 AM
. * * Re: 94L hogrunr   Mon Aug 31 2009 10:23 AM
. * * Re: 94L scottsvb   Mon Aug 31 2009 10:21 AM
. * * Re: 94L Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 31 2009 10:08 AM
. * * Re: 94L weathernet   Mon Aug 31 2009 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 94L hogrunr   Mon Aug 31 2009 09:59 AM
. * * Re: 94L metwannabe   Mon Aug 31 2009 09:55 AM
. * * Re: 94L hogrunr   Mon Aug 31 2009 09:34 AM
. * * Re: 94L danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 31 2009 08:02 AM
. * * 94L danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 31 2009 07:24 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow berrywr   Mon Aug 31 2009 05:49 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow ncskywarn   Mon Aug 31 2009 05:33 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow JoshuaK   Mon Aug 31 2009 05:17 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow weathernet   Sun Aug 30 2009 08:42 PM
. * * Watch the back door again...GOM danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 30 2009 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 30 2009 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow AdvAutoBob   Sun Aug 30 2009 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow JMII   Sun Aug 30 2009 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow hogrunr   Sun Aug 30 2009 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 30 2009 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Random Chaos   Sun Aug 30 2009 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Beach   Sun Aug 30 2009 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow hogrunr   Sun Aug 30 2009 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Hugh   Sun Aug 30 2009 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 30 2009 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 30 2009 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow berrywr   Sun Aug 30 2009 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Hugh   Sun Aug 30 2009 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Random Chaos   Sun Aug 30 2009 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Hugh   Sun Aug 30 2009 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 30 2009 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow Hurikid   Sun Aug 30 2009 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow craigm   Sun Aug 30 2009 08:44 AM

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