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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Posts: 489
Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico
      Mon Aug 31 2009 03:42 PM

Someone speculated earlier on the path on the moisture from Jimena...here's the afternoon HPC discussion on it....wide divergence in the models:

AS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A
MONSOON SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/SEA OF
CORTEZ TO ITS EAST...ENHANCING RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO BEFORE MOVING
INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SERIOUSLY TO THE RIGHT WITH ITS TRACK OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS...NOW TAKING ITS MID-LEVEL REMNANT INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK RATHER THAN WEST ALONG 20N INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC. THE
NORTHEAST TREND IN THE NHC GUIDANCE LED TO A ONE DAY ACCELERATION
OF THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THIS MOISTURE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE MOISTURE FEED EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTED INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS WEEKEND. AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 0.50
INCH OR MORE PER DAY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TOPOGRAPHY IN ARIZONA
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico vpbob21 Mon Aug 31 2009 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico JoshuaK   Mon Aug 31 2009 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico NickH   Mon Aug 31 2009 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico Ed in Va   Mon Aug 31 2009 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico JoshuaK   Fri Sep 04 2009 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico JoshuaK   Mon Aug 31 2009 12:46 AM

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