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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Erika
      Wed Sep 02 2009 05:06 AM

Erika is definitely a challenge for the models to get a grip on. Sure enough, there was a southward shift over the night hours:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020859
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SEARCHING
FOR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED
TRACK. HOWEVER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE
MULTIPLE CENTERS...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
PROBABLY REPRESENTS A MEAN CENTER...OR THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE INITIAL MOTION...270/4...IS OF
COURSE ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED TO RESUME. ERIKA SHOULD BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE...E.G. THE
GFDL AND HWRF...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A
WEAKER SYSTEM...E.G. THE GFS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERIKA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF
THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN
DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON ERIKA...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...BUT BELOW THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THESE NUMERICAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL...
HAVE SHOWN A HIGH BIAS FOR A COUPLE OF THIS YEAR'S ATLANTIC
TROPICAL CYCLONES.

GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Erika Likely to Dissipate over the next Several Days MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 02 2009 05:06 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:38 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... JoshuaK   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:16 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:03 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... scottsvb   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:27 PM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:37 PM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further craigm   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:58 PM
. * * she is coming back.... SeaMule   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Cape Weather   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Robert   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further ftlaudbob   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further LoisCane   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further LoisCane   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Robert   Wed Sep 02 2009 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further weathernet   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Lamar-Plant City   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Erratic Erika hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Erratic Erika berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lamar-Plant City   Wed Sep 02 2009 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Hawkeyewx   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Evan Johnson   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika docrod   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika scottsvb   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika LoisCane   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika craigm   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika k___g   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika craigm   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika scottsvb   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika WeatherNut   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:25 PM

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