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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further
      Wed Sep 02 2009 12:06 PM

Refer to SSEC Wind Shear Analysis, Navy Wind Shear Forecasts and NCEP Models and Forecast Branch 300mb and 200mb Analysis:

SSEC Wind Shear: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Navy Wind Shear Forecast: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgrid.pl?aor+ngpshrcolor+aor+ngpshr+aor+avnshr

NCEP GFS 200mb at 02/12Z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_000l.gif

NCEP GFS 300mb at 02/12Z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_000l.gif

NWSFO San Juan Model Guidance Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=model01

Courtesy of NHC 15Z Discussion:

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...WITH CIMSS
DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE SHEAR DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REPORTED AT 200 MB OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND ST. MAARTEN
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS PRIMARILY COMING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 300 MB-250 MB...AND THIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW LAYERS AT 200 MB AND ABOVE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED."

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Erika Likely to Dissipate over the next Several Days MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 02 2009 12:06 PM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:38 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... JoshuaK   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:16 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:03 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... scottsvb   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:27 PM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:37 PM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further craigm   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:58 PM
. * * she is coming back.... SeaMule   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Cape Weather   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Robert   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further ftlaudbob   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further LoisCane   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further LoisCane   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Robert   Wed Sep 02 2009 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further weathernet   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Lamar-Plant City   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Erratic Erika hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Erratic Erika berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lamar-Plant City   Wed Sep 02 2009 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Hawkeyewx   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Evan Johnson   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika docrod   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika scottsvb   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika LoisCane   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika craigm   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika k___g   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika craigm   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika scottsvb   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika WeatherNut   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:25 PM

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