MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
Erika Falls Apart
Thu Sep 03 2009 07:12 AM
|
|
|
2PM EDT 4 September 2009 Update
95L is now being tracked in the Eastern Atlantic, 30-50% chance of development in the next 48 hours, but there doesn't seem to be that great of model initialization on it yet.
6:30AM 4 September 2009 Update
At 11PM last night the National Hurricane Center discontinued advisories on Erika, as it has weakened to an open wave.
It will continue to be monitored for any signs of reorganization, as there is still some convection associated with it, it fact a good area near the old center formed overnight.
Another wave in the east Atlantic is being monitored as well, it has no investigation number as of yet, and has a <30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours.
6:30PM Update
Erika has weakened to a depression, the main low level circulation racing away from the convection. The NHC forecasts it to dissipate as it nears Hispaniola now, bringing heavy rainfall to the area.
Even though it is most likely to fall apart, much of the convection to the east remains. We'll continue to watch for any signs of re-organization.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Erika remains in the northeastern Caribbean, moving slowly toward the west northwest. The current forecast track now takes it right over Puerto Rico, but it will mostly be a rain event for the island. It may be downgraded before it gets to Puerto Rico.
After that it is expected to slide into the Bahamas, but also run into heavy shear, which the National hurricane center is forecasting to weaken it further into an open wave. The remnants of the wave may wind up in Florida, bringing us rain mid next week.
There are still some uncertainties with the storm, so it will have to be monitored, particularly if it slows down even more.
There is quite a bit of convection across the Leewards right now, I'm sure a few places will see flash floods, places like Montserrat are a bit vulnerable to that. But overall Erika seems to be on the weakening trend. It would be foolish to take attention off of it now, however, at least until the main convection dies down. Especially since some modes still insist on intensification and the still general slow westward motion.
It's really down to which factors are more important, dry air, shear, vs steering and massive convection, computer models against old fashioned forecasting. Erika is still very interesting, and even though the dissipation scenario is most likely, it is by no means definite.
Martinique Radar
Flhurricane Recording of Martinique Radar/Erika Approach
{{radarlink|jua|San Juan, Puerto Rico}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Invest 95L|95|7|2009|1|Invest 95L}}
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Sep 04 2009 08:43 PM)
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
