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A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 74 (Nicholas) , Major: 90 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1144 (Michael) Major: 1144 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico
      Thu Sep 03 2009 01:01 PM

Erika continues to be sheared from the west, with an exposed LLC moving generally just north of due west out ahead of the mass of convection to the east. The shearing is occurring between a trough axis extending from about 27N, 62W to 21N, 73W and an upper level ridge just to the east of Erika (i.e. not far from the deepest convection). Thus, we get a mess of a situation: Erika's LLC is located along the axis of strongest upper level winds, while the convection is situated to the east in the region of strongest upper level divergence (winds spreading apart at upper levels favors rising motion and thus often convection).

Satellite imagery hints at a mid-level vortex located within the convective mass, as it did yesterday, but there haven't really been any signs of the surface center reforming underneath it. As such, the vortex keeps chugging westward, steered by the low level trade winds. If the surface center were to re-form under the deep convection, Erika might have a fighting shot, but it's got Hispaniola and/or Puerto Rico to deal with shortly down the line. Plus, the shear doesn't look to abate all that much over the next few days.

While it's not impossible for Erika to regain strength, there's a lot stacking up against it doing so. Florida should keep an eye on it, of course, but this looks more like another Ana or Danny than anything else right now.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Erika Falls Apart MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 03 2009 01:01 PM
. * * Re: RIP - Erika MichaelA   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:54 PM
. * * RIP - Erika Lamar-Plant City   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:08 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Robert   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:07 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean doug   Fri Sep 04 2009 03:57 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 02:34 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean MichaelA   Fri Sep 04 2009 12:13 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean weathernet   Fri Sep 04 2009 11:05 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean LoisCane   Fri Sep 04 2009 09:27 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 07:18 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 04 2009 06:43 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 06:36 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:58 AM
. * * E Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:00 AM
. * * Re: Martinique radar craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Martinique radar MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:08 PM
. * * Martinique radar Robert   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:03 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:32 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? Clark   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:00 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:41 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? Ed in Va   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:39 PM
. * * 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico scottsvb   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico scottsvb   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico doug   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico Clark   Thu Sep 03 2009 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 03 2009 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico weathernet   Thu Sep 03 2009 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:45 AM

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