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A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 74 (Nicholas) , Major: 90 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1144 (Michael) Major: 1144 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika?
      Thu Sep 03 2009 06:00 PM

Quote:

How much does historiography play into the models? The history of all early Sep trop storms in the vicinity of Erika is a mixed bag in terms of eventual path http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200906_climo.html#a_topad,
but the track record of those that did becomes canes is impressive. From the graph, Hortense, Ella, Jeanne, Baker, and Enda all became major storms and Gert was a Cat 2. Soooo, if E survives, there is strong potential for intensification.




The dynamical models do not contain any knowledge of historical storms and their evolutions. These include the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, ECMWF, and so on.

The statistical and dynamical-statistical models, however, have varying degrees or forms of climatological information in them. Some are solely based off of climatology (CLIPER) whereas others are statistical regression models based upon observed conditions and what has happened in the past with similar storms.

All in all, though, there's no inherent knowledge of other September storms near that area in most of the reliable guidance. Information about the current atmosphere and ocean play a primary role in forecasting.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Erika Falls Apart MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 03 2009 06:00 PM
. * * Re: RIP - Erika MichaelA   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:54 PM
. * * RIP - Erika Lamar-Plant City   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:08 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Robert   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:07 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean doug   Fri Sep 04 2009 03:57 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 02:34 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean MichaelA   Fri Sep 04 2009 12:13 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean weathernet   Fri Sep 04 2009 11:05 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean LoisCane   Fri Sep 04 2009 09:27 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 07:18 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 04 2009 06:43 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 06:36 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:58 AM
. * * E Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:00 AM
. * * Re: Martinique radar craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Martinique radar MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:08 PM
. * * Martinique radar Robert   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:03 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:32 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? Clark   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:00 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:41 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? Ed in Va   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:39 PM
. * * 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico scottsvb   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico scottsvb   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico doug   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico Clark   Thu Sep 03 2009 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 03 2009 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico weathernet   Thu Sep 03 2009 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:45 AM

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