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Modeled CAG/TC next week with now 40% NHC odds within 7 days. Model-implied 80% odds within 10 days. Entire NW Carib & Gulf should monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Francine) , Major: 387 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 46 (Debby) Major: 387 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2009 Storm Forum

CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Tropical Depression 8 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic
      Fri Sep 25 2009 04:40 PM

Well, there ya go! According to the NRL website, Invest 99L has organized sufficiently to lower the central pressure enough to increase the sustained winds to at least 30 Kts. and Viola! Tropical Depression 8 has made its' presence known.

I expect official advisories and forecasts from the NHC to be issued in 1/2 hour, or 5pm EDT. At this rate, it seems entirely reasonable to speculate that TD8 will become TS 'Grace' within the next 12 to 24 hours, before the upper level shear ticks up a notch or two. NHC dissipates the system in a few days due to strong shear, but who knows? If a decent low and/or mid level circulation persists, it could very well find itself in a more conducive environment by days 4 or 5, in which case regeneration is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.

Certainly the most interesting thing (Western Pacific not included ... more on that later) that we've seen in quite some time!

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 8 Forms! Tropical Storm GRACE in the Making ?? CoconutCandy Fri Sep 25 2009 04:40 PM
. * * Tropical Depression 8 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic CoconutCandy   Fri Sep 25 2009 04:40 PM
. * * Tropical Depression 8 Recent Observations CoconutCandy   Sat Sep 26 2009 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* rgd   Fri Sep 25 2009 10:07 PM
. * * Chances for What? CoconutCandy   Fri Sep 25 2009 11:48 PM

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