Tropical Depression 8 Forms! Tropical Storm GRACE in the Making ??

A few more notes and observations, as new model data has just come in.

As mentioned above, the track has been adjusted slightly to the left of the original track.

More significantly, the model guidance *no longer* has this system sharply recurving, but instead is tightly clustered on a solid NW heading, before the shear sets in and weakens it to an open wave (and *perhaps* dissipation).

Even more interestingly, the intensity guidance (at least the SHIPS and IVCN) has the storm re-strengthening to a respectible 55 Kts. by 120 hours (day 5). And this is a good 15 to 20 Kts. *higher* than the intensity guidance for the previous advisory.

So, all and all considering, I'd hazard to speculate that even if TD8/Grace does weaken (perhaps to a wave) all is not said and done with this system.

Like x-Fred, it could conceivably make it all the way across 'the pond' and (unlike x-Fred) may regenerate when upper winds become more favorable.

So let's not count out or summarily dismiss TD8 'til we see just what transpires over the next 4 to 5 days. This could turn out to be rather interesting, from a purely meteorological perspective!

---------------------------

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 26 2009 08:19 AM)

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US