Wow, there is a lot to talk about out in the Western Pacific. I really don't know where to start.
I'd like to be able to post some of the fancy maps and satellite pics the CoconutCandy has on his posts, but that's beyond my computer abilities. But I will post the great link he has on his thread that shows the 3 storms lined up across the Western Pacific.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html
I guess I'll start with a wrap-up on former Typhoon Ketsana. Ketsana is gone (pretty much) but will not be soon forgotten in the areas that were devastated by it. It made its final landfall in Vietnam yesterday with 90 kt. (105 mph) winds. The Philippines and Vietnam are still reeling from the effects, and reports of major flooding are coming in from Laos and Cambodia as well.
Then we have our three systems across the Pacific, with Guam pretty much smack in the middle of them. The system nearby to Guam, Tropical Storm #18 is kind of the black sheep of the family in that it's being sqeezed by the systems on either side of it and having its infow and outflow disrupted by them. Looking at the Guam radar you can still see what's left of the COC passing between Guam and Rota and spinning off to the NW. Various model solutions have the system weakening and being sheared apart, being absorbed into the system to the west or a combination of both.
Then we have Typhoon Parma (just upgraded on the 0300z advisory). It is forming a nice eye and appears well on its way to becoming a very dangerous storm. Currently, it is not much of a threat to land, at least in the short term.
Last but not least is Tropical Storm Melor, which formed out of old Invest 90W out to the east of Pohnpei, and is gathering strength about 660 miles ESE of Saipan. It is developing a nice outflow channel and SST's are very warm, so intensification into a typhoon seems likely within 3 days, if not sooner.
So where are these systems going? I would have to think with 3 systems so close together and the complex interactions that are likely to occur, the uncertainty factor is probably going to be off the charts. But right now the official forecast calls for Parma (the westernmost of the 3 storms) to move northwestward to a position a couple hundred miles southeast of Taiwan in 5 days, while deepening to a 110 kt. storm. At some point it is progged to absorb T.S. #18, so erratic movement is possible. As for Melor, it is currently moving NW but is expected to turn to the west as ridging builds to the north. It is expected to pass between Guam and Saipan in about 4 days, and could well be a typhoon when it gets there. After that, it's anybody's guess.
So it could be a bumpy ride for some areas out in the WestPac. Hopefully, the systems will avoid land areas and allow the cleanup process to proceed in areas that have been hard hit.
UPDATE - Parma is now a supertyphoon with 130 kt. (150 mph) winds. Unfortunately the track is looking much closer to the Philippines, and the official forecast has it near the northeast coast of Luzon in about 3 days. Undoubtedly this is going to be another big soaker for the Philippines. It may intensify further to 140 kts. as it aproaches. The news is a little better on Typhoon Melor (recently upgraded) - it is now expected to pass north of Saipan, putting them in a slightly less dangerous quadrant. Saipan still needs to watch this one closely. The discussions hints at possible interaction between the 2 systems beyond 96 hours.
Edited by vpbob21 (Thu Oct 01 2009 12:37 AM)
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Cyclone traffic clogged up across Western Pacific
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