(Original Post Title: Unnamed Tropical Storm Upgraded to 35 Kts. - Major Philippines Typhoon Possible)
Yet another in a long series of tropical cyclones has formed in the same general area, ESE of Guam and the Marianas, that spawned the likes of CHOI-WAN, PARMA, and MELOR.
>> NOTE: (See the last post, below for latest updates on storm developments.)
Just upgraded to 35 Kts., and though not yet named, this tropical storm is passing south of Guam, all the while slowly intensifying.
Even now, you can begin to see the pronounced cyclonic rotation of the inner core convection, still not well organized, on the long-range doppler radar out of Guam.
For those wishing to see a real-time animated loop of 22W passing south of Guam, click ...
Long Range Reflectivity Doppler Radar from Guam
Unfortunately, it looks as though this small tropical storm will steadily strengthen as it passes west of Guam and will be at Typhoon (Hurricane) strength in a few days, and is then expected to further intensify into a 100 Knot (115 mph, CAT 3) Major Typhoon as it tracks steadily towards an already much-beseiged Luzon, the northern-most island of the Philippines where Manila is located.
I'm sure many readers are already familiar with the devastation wrought by numerous tropical cyclones over these past few weeks, including a weak, 35 Kt. tropical storm (KETSANA) that brought the worst flooding to the Metro Manila area in 43 years and claimed nearly 300 lives on Luzon.
More recently, Typhoon PARMA, after meandering under weak steering currents and crossing over the island an amazing 3 times, greatly componded an already crisis suituation on Luzon, and has proved even more fatal than Ketsana, laying waste vast agricultural areas due to storm surge and flooding, and entirely wiping out mountainous villages with massive land and mudslides.
Certainly, the LAST thing the Philippines need right now is yet *another* Major Typhoon tracking towards them, with models taking the cyclone across Luzon in about 6 days. Hopefully, the typhoon will begin to recurve more north than currently forecast before it resumes a more westerly course, possibly avoiding a landfall and tracking just north Luzon.
Nonetheless, it seems the cyclone is likely to adversely effect the Island with strong winds and dropping torrential rains on already saturated ground, regardless of its' exact track. And unfortunately that forebodes continuing disaster compounded on top of all the damage wrought by the many tropical cyclones they've already endured over this past month or so.
And finally (for now) here are some links to a color enhanced, animated IR satellite loop ...
Western Pacific Animated Color IR Loop
... and the NWS Guam Homepage for all the Watches, Warnings, Local Statements, Special Weather Statements and Tropical Storm / Typhoon Advisories ...
NWS Guam Homepage
Will be posting more as time allows ...
Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Oct 15 2009 11:35 PM)
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