MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen
Wed Nov 04 2009 07:07 AM
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3:00PM EST Update 6 November 2009
Ida is now offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras as a Tropical Depression. It has maintained its structure and has a window of opportunity to slowly restrengthen. If/when it approaches the Gulf conditions likely will be hostile for development and it may weaken once again.
7:00AM EST Update 6 November 2009
Ida still remains a tropical depression but may exit land sooner than anticipated, and it now looks more likely that it will regain some strength in the short term once it does. However, as it approaches the gulf the shear and conditions around it will be very hostile. There is a chance it could turn subtropical or extratropical in the Gulf, and some of the rainfall may wind up to the east even if the system itself is no longer tropical.
None of this is certian however, so it should be watched.
7:00PM EST Update 5 November 2009
Ida has greatly weakened over Nicaragua and may not survive the trek over the system before moving more northward. If the general structure of the system survives the cross it has another shot at regaining some strength, although hurricane strength is not likely at all, it will encounter more hostile conditions in the Gulf, which would make any second eventual landfall likely to be a rain event.
Older Updates
Ida is now a Hurricane and is about to make landfall in Nicaragua, currently it is moving very slowly. This will bring very heavy flooding rains, winds, and mudslides to the area as it is expected to perhaps be over land up to 3 days before exiting back into the Caribbean to the north as a much weaker system. It could start drifting more northward at this point.
This is only the 3rd hurricane this year, and looks to be the only landfalling hurricane of the season.
6:00PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Hurricane watches were issued for Nicaragua as Ida continues to maintain organization, winds have increased to 65mph, and the storm has a good window to reach hurricane strength. Bringing some winds and a lot of rain to Nicaragua. It has the potential to be a dangerous situation (Rain mostly, aggravated by the winds) there.
Late visible satellite imagery suggests it may be forming a visible eye. The atmospheric set up around makes it more likely become a hurricane before landfall. Those in that area of Nicaragua may want to prepare for a category 1 or 2 hurricane, and hope for less.
There is still much question about where the system will go after that. If Ida deepens rapidly, it would lean more toward a northward motion than west, if it weakens it would likely go more west. Right now the over Nicaragua out Honduras to the eastern side of the Yucatan has become slightly more likely. Beyond that too early to tell.
IT will weaken quite a bit overland, but not as much if it stays to the east of the mountains. It may be over land for as long as 3 days in Nicaragua and Honduras, so rainfall and flooding, along with mudslides will be an issue.
If it remains on the NHC track, those in the Gulf will want to be watching next week.
Add a comment to discuss, or make a prediction (models or otherwise on the Ida Lounge.
4:10PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Ida now has a closed Eyewall based on Recon reports, it may be strengthening to a hurricane.
4PM EST Update 4 November 2009
Ida has formed from TD#11 in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
The system has with 60MPH winds, Headed toward Nicaragua.
3:30PM Update
Based on Recon reports and NRL best track, it appears TD#11 has become Tropical Storm Ida. Advisories on Ida likely to begin at 5PM.
11:30AM Update
The system in the southwest Caribbean sea has been upgraded to Tropical Depression #11.
The current forecast track takes it over Nicaragua and Honduras, and then back into the open water. It is forecast to recover as a system once it crosses over, and then may approach the Yucatan. After this is too soon to tell, really depends if it stays east of the Yucatan much or not. This will be well worth watching this week into next.
Recon aircraft is now on the way to the system.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami says it could become Tropical Storm Ida by tomorrow. The system is moving slowly and will near the coastline and probably make landfall near Bluefields Evening. The main threat for Central America now is the very heavy rainfall which could be dangerous for Nicaragua and Honduras because of the slow movement .
The slow moving system will have influences from a wave in the Eastern Pacific, and the overall lack of steering currents in that part of the Caribbean. Also involved will be the low in the Bay of Campeche which too has a small chance of forming, which may give it enough of a pull north to make it, of course the system in the pacific may nudge it more westward too, causing rainfall, but keeping the system from strengthening.
Based on appearance this morning it's very likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Tropical Storm when recon aircraft gets there.
Most likely it may move further west and not redevelop much. (Low confidence, however. The setup around it also favors intensification, and if it does--and that is the key--than it would move over to being more northward and stronger)
More to come soon...
Original Update
The system in the Southwestern Caribbean (97L) is looking much better this morning and now has a better than 50% chance for development as most conditions are favorable in the area.
Track wise most likely it will stay close to Central America and may even clip Honduras and then approach the Yucatan, all very slowly which means it could change or be off quite a bit.
For now, most likely more rains for Central America and perhaps a late season storm.
Reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30th.
The area in the Bay of Campeche has much more hostile conditions and looks like if anything would develop there it would take a while.
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