cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea
Thu Nov 05 2009 04:52 AM Attachment (627 downloads)
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Too tired for much analysis, let alone even coherent writing, except to say that it does appear to be a really raw deal for Nicaragua this morning. For all practical intents and purposes, Ida is likely already a hurricane (likely to be deemed so in post-season reanalysis at the very least - recon simply isn't in there now, and there is a huge datavoid, but my best guess has Ida currently between 75-90 MPH 1-min avg max) .. Simply put, the DVORAK technique has not been doing this cyclone justice at all since its inception as a non-designated TC/Invest.
The coastline of Nicaragua is slanted in such a manner as to accommodate the cyclone with more time over water, as Ida travels northwest right along the coast, with only painfully incremental inroads inland. In addition to extending the duration that the immediate coast is pummeled by wind and rain, it is also forcing more and more rain to fall over land, such that in the more likely event that Ida does move inland, large portions of Nicaragua will have already picked up several inches, with possibly even over a foot in some places.
It remains to be seen how long Ida gets held up over central America, but at this point the outcomes are almost certainly bad, and more bad. Ida can linger for several more days over Nicaragua/Honduras/Belize and cause awful life-threatening flooding, only to reemerge and reconstitute itself for an ultimate trip into the lower 48. Or even much worse yet for our friends in central America, Ida may simply crawl to a near stall and completely squeeze out down there.
Image uploaded. Corrected Honduras with Nicaragua.
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Nov 05 2009 10:18 AM)
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