Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Major Hurricane Ian making landfall overnight on western Cuba. Life-threatening conditions underway there now.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Fiona) , Major: 393 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1447 (Michael) Major: 1447 (Michael)
22.6N 83.6W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 950mb
Moving:
N at 12 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 99LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Hurricane Ida
      Thu Nov 05 2009 05:57 PM

Wow....., while we watch the wild wacky world of forecast models ( that was a lot of "w's" ), the 18Z GFS has partialy come out. Good news here is that while an intensifying Ida would be emerging into the N.W. Caribbean in a few days, at 120 hours it suddenly starts a due east march ahead of what appears to be a potent digging short wave. Bad of course for those in Cuba, but at least would seem to spare Florida.

Bad news is, when I then projected the 120 hours point when an eastward motion starts, and then looked at the official NHC forecasted position and a few other models, in most cases the storm was already up to about 25 degrees latitude or more. Well, even if this eastward motion were to pan out, and even given that Ida could be moving in tandum with what must be ever increasing westerly shear, I think that despite its eastward motion the shear would be quite significant and perhaps would be looking at a moderate tropical storm becoming baroclinic and starting to weaken.

What i'll be most interested to see is the near term motion and how close to forecast, its speed and direction play out. Though very far from certain ( and especially if the storm is moving verses a stall ), I am getting a feeling that the models are starting to get a better handle on the storm and near/mid term steering conditions.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen MikeCAdministrator Thu Nov 05 2009 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm IDA OrlandoDan   Sat Nov 07 2009 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm IDA cieldumort   Sat Nov 07 2009 04:51 AM
. * * Tropical Storm IDA danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 07 2009 04:05 AM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen weathernet   Sat Nov 07 2009 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen WeatherNut   Sat Nov 07 2009 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen Rasvar   Sat Nov 07 2009 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen MichaelA   Fri Nov 06 2009 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen hurricane expert   Fri Nov 06 2009 02:57 PM
. * * Updates danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? Hawkeyewx   Fri Nov 06 2009 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 10:52 AM
. * * Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? berrywr   Fri Nov 06 2009 02:17 AM
. * * Hurricane Ida Makes the Record Books for Explosive Intensification CoconutCandy   Thu Nov 05 2009 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida JFV25   Thu Nov 05 2009 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida weathernet   Thu Nov 05 2009 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MikeCAdministrator   Thu Nov 05 2009 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida weathernet   Thu Nov 05 2009 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Wingman51   Thu Nov 05 2009 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MichaelA   Thu Nov 05 2009 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida rgd   Thu Nov 05 2009 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida WeatherNut   Thu Nov 05 2009 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida cieldumort   Thu Nov 05 2009 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MichaelA   Thu Nov 05 2009 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Jane   Thu Nov 05 2009 09:32 AM
. * * Hurricane Ida danielwAdministrator   Thu Nov 05 2009 09:11 AM
. * * Re: TD 11 OrlandoDan   Thu Nov 05 2009 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea LoisCane   Thu Nov 05 2009 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea cieldumort   Thu Nov 05 2009 04:52 AM
. * * Re: TD 11 JFV25   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:20 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note JFV25   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:09 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Ida's Developmental Fast Track WeatherNut   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:54 PM
. * * Ida's Developmental Fast Track CoconutCandy   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:36 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:09 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 - wv LoisCane   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:58 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:46 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 JFV25   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:28 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:15 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:03 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 04:07 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:52 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 Bloodstar   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 Storm Hunter   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:39 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Depression Likely to Develop but Maybe Short-Lived ?? Hawkeyewx   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:16 PM
. * * Depression Likely to Develop but Maybe Short-Lived ?? CoconutCandy   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:08 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 LoisCane   Wed Nov 04 2009 11:14 AM
. * * TD 11 danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean System Likely to Develop Hawkeyewx   Wed Nov 04 2009 10:01 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 65392

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center