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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
Td#2
ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
9.1N 41.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: 5-day wind shear analysis
      Sat Nov 07 2009 02:04 AM

I am not aware there are any graphics which forecast Wind Shear aloft beyond 96 hours but the US Navy does have model graphics and that link is - http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgrid.pl?aor+ngpshrcolor+aor+ngpshr+aor+avnshr. CIMMS out of the University of Wisconsin is who the NHC refers to when discussions speak of shear; that link is - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...0000&loop=0 .

The evolution of Ida is to say the least extremely complicated. Ed is right and as I stated a couple of days ago short of Ida being subtropical or extratropical it cannot survive given the shear which resides in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and as analysis currently indicates as of 07/03Z.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 5-day wind shear analysis spinup Sat Nov 07 2009 02:04 AM
. * * Re: 5-day wind shear analysis Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 05:46 PM
. * * Re: 5-day wind shear analysis Lamar-Plant City   Fri Nov 06 2009 06:28 PM
. * * Re: 5-day wind shear analysis Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 10:19 PM
. * * Re: 5-day wind shear analysis berrywr   Sat Nov 07 2009 02:04 AM

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