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The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 132 (Nicholas) , Major: 147 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1201 (Michael) Major: 1201 (Michael)
 


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Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen
      Sat Nov 07 2009 03:05 AM

Good that NHC pulled the trigger on upgrading Ida back to TS intensity. Given the intensity of bursting close to what would appear to be the COC, and the very cold tops, I would not be surprised if wind speeds were bumped up to at least 50mph at 12Z. At this time, I am seeing hints of banding north and south of center. Given the smaller ( and obviosly intact ) circulation that Ida has, it should not be too surprising to see fairly quick intensification. The fact that its current forward motion appears to be due north, would seem to help temporarily nullify any light southwesterly shear.

At this hour, my best guess would put a center around 17N and 84W. If correct, than this would place the center as far north and slightly east of the 12Z forecast position. Given the amazing collaboration of just about all models, Ida would be immediately start treking NNW'ward. I cannot see any evidence of such motion yet, and will be most interesting to see if first visible pics will verify a center any further west than current ( 84.0 ). If not, and with a TS already farther north and east of forecast, than the new initialized data would seem at minimum to shift the forecast eastward a little. Even if overalal dynamics seemed unchanged, I am not sure if a somewhat stronger TS would not impact short term guidance at least a little.

Might not be a bad idea for the NOAA peeps, to burn a little of there unspent 2009 hurricane season recon and upper air testing funds, and perhaps juice up a little extra synoptic data for the models to ingest. Though surprising if such were to occur, should Ida strengthen and continue northward - and by 0Z ( 11/8 ) tomorrow still not be any further west than 84 degrees, than we might see some interesting forecast shifts.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen MikeCAdministrator Sat Nov 07 2009 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm IDA OrlandoDan   Sat Nov 07 2009 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm IDA cieldumort   Sat Nov 07 2009 04:51 AM
. * * Tropical Storm IDA danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 07 2009 04:05 AM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen weathernet   Sat Nov 07 2009 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen WeatherNut   Sat Nov 07 2009 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen Rasvar   Sat Nov 07 2009 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen MichaelA   Fri Nov 06 2009 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen hurricane expert   Fri Nov 06 2009 02:57 PM
. * * Updates danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? Hawkeyewx   Fri Nov 06 2009 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 10:52 AM
. * * Ida regaining Tropical Storm status? berrywr   Fri Nov 06 2009 02:17 AM
. * * Hurricane Ida Makes the Record Books for Explosive Intensification CoconutCandy   Thu Nov 05 2009 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida JFV25   Thu Nov 05 2009 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida weathernet   Thu Nov 05 2009 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MikeCAdministrator   Thu Nov 05 2009 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida weathernet   Thu Nov 05 2009 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Wingman51   Thu Nov 05 2009 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MichaelA   Thu Nov 05 2009 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida rgd   Thu Nov 05 2009 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida WeatherNut   Thu Nov 05 2009 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida cieldumort   Thu Nov 05 2009 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MichaelA   Thu Nov 05 2009 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Jane   Thu Nov 05 2009 09:32 AM
. * * Hurricane Ida danielwAdministrator   Thu Nov 05 2009 09:11 AM
. * * Re: TD 11 OrlandoDan   Thu Nov 05 2009 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea LoisCane   Thu Nov 05 2009 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea cieldumort   Thu Nov 05 2009 04:52 AM
. * * Re: TD 11 JFV25   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:20 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note JFV25   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:09 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Ida's Developmental Fast Track WeatherNut   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:54 PM
. * * Ida's Developmental Fast Track CoconutCandy   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:36 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:09 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 - wv LoisCane   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:58 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:46 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 JFV25   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:28 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:15 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:03 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 04:07 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:52 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 Bloodstar   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 Storm Hunter   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:39 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Depression Likely to Develop but Maybe Short-Lived ?? Hawkeyewx   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:16 PM
. * * Depression Likely to Develop but Maybe Short-Lived ?? CoconutCandy   Wed Nov 04 2009 03:08 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 LoisCane   Wed Nov 04 2009 11:14 AM
. * * TD 11 danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean System Likely to Develop Hawkeyewx   Wed Nov 04 2009 10:01 AM

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