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Re: Ida Offshore, Poised to Restrengthen
Sat Nov 07 2009 03:05 AM
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Good that NHC pulled the trigger on upgrading Ida back to TS intensity. Given the intensity of bursting close to what would appear to be the COC, and the very cold tops, I would not be surprised if wind speeds were bumped up to at least 50mph at 12Z. At this time, I am seeing hints of banding north and south of center. Given the smaller ( and obviosly intact ) circulation that Ida has, it should not be too surprising to see fairly quick intensification. The fact that its current forward motion appears to be due north, would seem to help temporarily nullify any light southwesterly shear.
At this hour, my best guess would put a center around 17N and 84W. If correct, than this would place the center as far north and slightly east of the 12Z forecast position. Given the amazing collaboration of just about all models, Ida would be immediately start treking NNW'ward. I cannot see any evidence of such motion yet, and will be most interesting to see if first visible pics will verify a center any further west than current ( 84.0 ). If not, and with a TS already farther north and east of forecast, than the new initialized data would seem at minimum to shift the forecast eastward a little. Even if overalal dynamics seemed unchanged, I am not sure if a somewhat stronger TS would not impact short term guidance at least a little.
Might not be a bad idea for the NOAA peeps, to burn a little of there unspent 2009 hurricane season recon and upper air testing funds, and perhaps juice up a little extra synoptic data for the models to ingest. Though surprising if such were to occur, should Ida strengthen and continue northward - and by 0Z ( 11/8 ) tomorrow still not be any further west than 84 degrees, than we might see some interesting forecast shifts.
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