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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf
      Sat Nov 07 2009 12:33 PM

I am not liking the evolution of the models. I think I am going to play it safe and do a mini-kit stock for extended power outage (12 - 24 hours). Too many trees near powerlines around me. It is just too complex of a pattern for me to have confidence that it won't be gusty and nasty where I am. What I worry about most is Ida building more strength than is currently forecast while near Cuba and then getting caught up and drawn north at a much faster pace and having more energy at landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle.

I'm not sure that is the likely scenario. Probably what I would call the worst-case scenario and, therefore, the scenario I plan for. I would say this storm bears heavy watching for interests from New Orleans area to the SW Florida coast with primary concern being Biloxi to Tampa, especially coastal. A faster move will prevent heavy coastal flooding. But the current NHC forecast would be very rough for the Panhandle down to Tampa Bay if it happens. I still think the worst case is a hit at marginal hurricane strength. Most likely seems to be a system with medium TS force winds transitioning to extratropical. I think the interaction with the system in the Bay of Campechee is also a fly in the ointment over the next few days. This one will test the skills of the forecasters at NHC.

--------------------
Jim


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ida Lounge, What will happen? MikeCAdministrator Sat Nov 07 2009 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf rgd   Sat Nov 07 2009 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf berrywr   Mon Nov 09 2009 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf berrywr   Mon Nov 09 2009 06:02 PM
. * * Not exactly a forecast but an info request. Rasvar   Sat Nov 07 2009 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Not exactly a forecast but an info request. Rasvar   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Not exactly a forecast but an info request. WeatherNut   Sun Nov 08 2009 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf rgd   Sat Nov 07 2009 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 07 2009 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf Rasvar   Sat Nov 07 2009 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida TampaDon   Thu Nov 05 2009 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MikeCAdministrator   Thu Nov 05 2009 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MichaelA   Fri Nov 06 2009 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida kenny'sinstinct   Mon Nov 09 2009 03:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida ltpat228   Mon Nov 09 2009 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Nov 09 2009 09:03 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MichaelA   Mon Nov 09 2009 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida bammer   Mon Nov 09 2009 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida TampaDon   Sun Nov 08 2009 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Rasvar   Fri Nov 06 2009 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida tropicswatch   Sat Nov 07 2009 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 07 2009 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MichaelA   Fri Nov 06 2009 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Zosia   Fri Nov 06 2009 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Lamar-Plant City   Fri Nov 06 2009 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida B.C.Francis   Fri Nov 06 2009 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Rob Moser   Fri Nov 06 2009 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida CaneMan   Fri Nov 06 2009 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida rgd   Fri Nov 06 2009 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MichaelA   Thu Nov 05 2009 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 06 2009 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Zosia   Fri Nov 06 2009 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Rasvar   Fri Nov 06 2009 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Upgraded Just Before Landfall TampaDon   Thu Nov 05 2009 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? WeatherNut   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? WeatherNut   Sun Nov 08 2009 04:47 PM
. * * Ida & Future Trek & Wind Shear berrywr   Thu Nov 05 2009 05:05 AM
. * * Ida's Tantalizing Trek CoconutCandy   Wed Nov 04 2009 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? WeatherNut   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? rgd   Wed Nov 04 2009 07:21 PM
. * * Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? MichaelA   Wed Nov 04 2009 08:58 AM
. * * Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? MichaelA   Wed Nov 04 2009 04:04 PM
. * * Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Nov 04 2009 11:57 AM
. * * Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? Marknole   Wed Nov 04 2009 12:41 PM
. * * Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? Marknole   Mon Nov 09 2009 12:40 PM
. * * Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? Ed in Va   Mon Nov 09 2009 05:00 PM

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