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News Talkback >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

Rasvar
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl

Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf
Sat Nov 07 2009 12:33 PM

I am not liking the evolution of the models. I think I am going to play it safe and do a mini-kit stock for extended power outage (12 - 24 hours). Too many trees near powerlines around me. It is just too complex of a pattern for me to have confidence that it won't be gusty and nasty where I am. What I worry about most is Ida building more strength than is currently forecast while near Cuba and then getting caught up and drawn north at a much faster pace and having more energy at landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle.

I'm not sure that is the likely scenario. Probably what I would call the worst-case scenario and, therefore, the scenario I plan for. I would say this storm bears heavy watching for interests from New Orleans area to the SW Florida coast with primary concern being Biloxi to Tampa, especially coastal. A faster move will prevent heavy coastal flooding. But the current NHC forecast would be very rough for the Panhandle down to Tampa Bay if it happens. I still think the worst case is a hit at marginal hurricane strength. Most likely seems to be a system with medium TS force winds transitioning to extratropical. I think the interaction with the system in the Bay of Campechee is also a fly in the ointment over the next few days. This one will test the skills of the forecasters at NHC.

--------------------
Jim

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Ida Lounge, What will happen?	MikeC	Sat Nov 07 2009 12:33 PM
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf	rgd	Sat Nov 07 2009 01:38 PM
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf	berrywr	Mon Nov 09 2009 06:25 PM
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf	berrywr	Mon Nov 09 2009 06:02 PM
Not exactly a forecast but an info request.	Rasvar	Sat Nov 07 2009 07:42 PM
Re: Not exactly a forecast but an info request.	Rasvar	Sun Nov 08 2009 03:05 PM
Re: Not exactly a forecast but an info request.	WeatherNut	Sun Nov 08 2009 04:53 PM
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf	rgd	Sat Nov 07 2009 10:33 AM
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf	MikeC	Sun Nov 08 2009 10:12 PM
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf	MikeC	Sat Nov 07 2009 10:48 AM
Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf	Rasvar	Sat Nov 07 2009 12:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	TampaDon	Thu Nov 05 2009 02:49 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	MikeC	Thu Nov 05 2009 04:51 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	MichaelA	Fri Nov 06 2009 11:31 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	kenny'sinstinct	Mon Nov 09 2009 03:25 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	ltpat228	Mon Nov 09 2009 08:59 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	MikeC	Mon Nov 09 2009 09:03 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	MichaelA	Mon Nov 09 2009 12:08 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	bammer	Mon Nov 09 2009 12:28 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	TampaDon	Sun Nov 08 2009 11:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	Rasvar	Fri Nov 06 2009 01:00 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	tropicswatch	Sat Nov 07 2009 01:49 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	MikeC	Sat Nov 07 2009 10:18 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	MichaelA	Fri Nov 06 2009 01:55 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	Zosia	Fri Nov 06 2009 05:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	Lamar-Plant City	Fri Nov 06 2009 06:37 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	B.C.Francis	Fri Nov 06 2009 08:14 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	Rob Moser	Fri Nov 06 2009 09:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	CaneMan	Fri Nov 06 2009 07:14 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	rgd	Fri Nov 06 2009 07:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	MichaelA	Thu Nov 05 2009 05:23 PM
Re: Hurricane Ida	MikeC	Fri Nov 06 2009 10:46 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	Zosia	Fri Nov 06 2009 11:07 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida	Rasvar	Fri Nov 06 2009 11:12 AM
Re: Hurricane Ida Upgraded Just Before Landfall	TampaDon	Thu Nov 05 2009 12:22 PM
Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen?	WeatherNut	Wed Nov 04 2009 08:17 PM
Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen?	WeatherNut	Sun Nov 08 2009 04:47 PM
Ida & Future Trek & Wind Shear	berrywr	Thu Nov 05 2009 05:05 AM
Ida's Tantalizing Trek	CoconutCandy	Wed Nov 04 2009 10:17 PM
Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen?	MikeC	Wed Nov 04 2009 06:34 PM
Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen?	WeatherNut	Wed Nov 04 2009 08:44 PM
Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen?	rgd	Wed Nov 04 2009 10:54 PM
Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen?	rgd	Wed Nov 04 2009 07:21 PM
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen?	MichaelA	Wed Nov 04 2009 08:58 AM
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen?	MichaelA	Wed Nov 04 2009 04:04 PM
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen?	MikeC	Wed Nov 04 2009 11:57 AM
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen?	Marknole	Wed Nov 04 2009 12:41 PM
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen?	Marknole	Mon Nov 09 2009 12:40 PM
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen?	Ed in Va	Mon Nov 09 2009 05:00 PM

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