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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 36 (Nicholas) , Major: 52 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1106 (Michael) Major: 1106 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Shear vs Ida
      Sun Nov 08 2009 07:53 AM

6:40AM EST Tuesday 10 November 2009 Update
Ida's energy is over land along with a tail to the east. Most of the rain is over Alabama, a bit west, and a large area of Georgia (Including Atlanta, unfortunately). For some areas where the energy from Ida crosses over, you will
have flooding.



Although there may be some rain across Florida related to this, it won't be all that much.

Ida's center of circulation is still offshore, but is "naked" with no convection to speak of. Shear pulled it north and east away from it, and it may never make landfall as a tropical storm.

It was an extremely complex forecast having to do with intensity and timing, which the NHC admits on its own it still isn't good at. The track forecast itself was still pretty good, just the strength and timing.

With Ida near an end, another system in the Central Atlantic has 10-30% chance of development, and most likely will not be a problem.


9:44PM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Radar and Aircraft positions aren't really matching up anymore, so it looks like Ida has decoupled. It's got the appearance of a front developing to its southwest, and the band shooting across Florida and to the south. Landfall around Mobile (maybe a bit east) is possible with one possible center. The other is further west or not at all (Se of Louisiana).

Outside of Ida, believe it or not, another area in the Central Atlantic has roughly 30% chance of development.

9:52AM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Ida now a Tropical Storm, all Hurricane Warnings have been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings.

6:40AM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Overnight Ida has been affected greatly by vertical shear and cooler water temperatures. The race between the shear/extratropical transition and landfall continues. It looks like the transition is winning now--there was a hint this was possible last night when recon found hail/lightning in the northern quadrant. The Hurricane Center is being very generous calling it a Hurricane at the 7AM EST advisory.

Judging by appearance it's likely that Ida will be a strong Tropical or Hybrid Storm at landfall maybe even decoupled from most of the convection, with a lot of hybrid storm tendencies, minor to moderate storm surge will be an issue near the landfall point and east. Along with the enhanced possibility for small short-lived tornadoes.

Because of the transition to extratropical, most to all of the worst weather may be well before landfall and mostly to the east and north.



For the rest of the Florida peninsula clouds from Ida will likely be overhead most of the day with the windy conditions, but there won't be much rain except in the Panhandle and Alabama.

It's mostly good news this morning, in the fact that most of the very strong winds will not reach the surface with the shear. The only real worry is some coastal flooding and spotty short lived tornadoes before landfall. The windy conditions may feel strong helped by the general gradient across a very large area.

The remnants of Ida will probably hang around as a front begins to move in, so the rest of Florida and parts of the southeast will probably seeing rain/wind from Ida's remains all week.

10PM EST Sunday 8 November 2009 Update
Hurricane Warnings now up from Pascagoula, MI Eastward to Indian Pass, FL. Even though it will likely weaken, those in the area need to prepare for a possible Category 2 hurricane. Areas near the landfall point and eastward will see the worst from the system.

Tropical Storm warnings are up for areas just either side of the Hurricane Warning Area.

Any landfall is likely Tuesday morning, it is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall. If the NHC's current track were to verify it would be very near Pensacola, but there is a fair degree of uncertainty either way.

4PM EST Sunday 8 November 2009 Update
Hurricane Ida has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane, and conditions may allow for it to strengthen a bit more until tomorrow. The current forecast track puts it close to the Florida/Albama border as a strong tropical storm or low end hurricane (possibly hybrid) Tuesday morning. This is accelerated from what was discussed previously as Ida is moving faster than forecast earlier. It will be a race of sorts between Ida's current structure, the cooler water in the central/northern gulf and the extratropical transition which may not happen now until it gets very close to landfall



Because of this Hurricane Watches are up east of Grand Isle, LA all the way east to Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle. I wouldn't focus too much on the landfall point, because it is transitioning to Extra tropical affects could be felt quite far to the east of the general landfall area as well, mostly coastal Flooding and winds.

There is already a strong gradient wind across the Florida peninsula that right now has little to do with Ida.

Those in the watch area should take precautions for an approaching hurricane and consult local media and officials. The rest of those in the Cone should continue to monitor Ida very closely.

Ida has killed roughly 91 people in El Salvador from the flooding rains.

Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins will be in the Ida landfall area and are live streaming video currently over at Hurricane Track.com.
Direct Ida coverage link.

What are conditions in your area related to Ida? Let us know here
Have a guess, long range model analysis, or thought about where Ida will be going, let us know in the lounge.

10AM EST Sunday Update
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS.

Original Post
Ida is moving very close to Cancun and the tip of the Yucatan today, but looks like it will miss landfall to the east. Overnight, Ida was moving more northwest, but recently it seems to be turning more to the north this morning.



Ida remains a category 1 hurricane for now, as it enters the Gulf later today it will begin to see slilghtly more hostile conditions, that will get very hostile in 2 to 3 days. Around then Ida is expected to begin to transform into an Extra Tropical system, lacking pure Tropical Characteristics. It's a border condition that may prove out interesting for forecast and any warnings/watches that may be issued for the Gulf.

Based on the current forecast track the National Hurricane Center (NHC) may not issue typical tropical storm warnings, and leave it to local NWS offices to issue Gale and coastal Flood watches. This depends on how quickly Ida makes that transition.

The future for Ida is very cloudy, and the track may be adjusted east or west based on exactly where Ida moves, but when it does make the transition the wind field will expand enhancing wind across the Gulf. With this morning's track, affects to Florida will be minimal until Wednesday or Thursday. If it were to move further east, it may be more. But the system itself will remain west enough to keep it from being too bad. The pressure gradient already existing will keep it breezy in Florida, with or without Ida's influence.

Those in the Central And eastern Gulf need to keep a close watch on Ida this week. Especially those immediately on the coastline that have flooded with storms similar in the past.

Ida Related Links

Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins will be in the Ida landfall area and are live streaming video currently over at Hurricane Track.com.
Direct Ida coverage link.


Emergency Management

FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Individual Florida County Emergency Management Websites

Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL
WMBB - Panama City Beach, FL
WEAR ABC 3 in Pensacola
NBC 15 / Mobile/Pensacola

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|mob|Mobile, AL Radar}}
{{radarlink|tlh|Tallahassee FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest Florida Radar}}

Alabama Beach Webcams
Phoenix All Suite Gulf Shores Webcam (With Radar) flhurricane recording


Cancun Radar Animation
Cancun Radar
Ida Storm Spotlight
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Ida|11|11|2009|2|Ida}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|12|2009|2|98L}}
StormPulse Map

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Shear vs Ida MikeCAdministrator Sun Nov 08 2009 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? JoshuaK   Wed Nov 11 2009 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? vpbob21   Wed Nov 11 2009 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? JoshuaK   Tue Nov 10 2009 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? berrywr   Tue Nov 10 2009 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? danielwAdministrator   Tue Nov 10 2009 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? berrywr   Tue Nov 10 2009 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Ida Landfall Overnight berrywr   Tue Nov 10 2009 04:12 AM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? Storm Hunter   Mon Nov 09 2009 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? Rasvar   Mon Nov 09 2009 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? Rasvar   Mon Nov 09 2009 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Transition to extratropical? MikeCAdministrator   Mon Nov 09 2009 09:54 PM
. * * Transition to extratropical? Rasvar   Mon Nov 09 2009 09:18 PM
. * * Ida Making Her Final Approach as a Strong Storm CoconutCandy   Mon Nov 09 2009 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Ida Being Sheared Heavily MikeCAdministrator   Mon Nov 09 2009 04:39 PM
. * * Tracking Ida's Inner Core: Doppler Radar Comprehension vs. Overlays CoconutCandy   Mon Nov 09 2009 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 09 2009 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? OrlandoDan   Mon Nov 09 2009 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? CoconutCandy   Mon Nov 09 2009 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? MichaelA   Mon Nov 09 2009 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? Rasvar   Mon Nov 09 2009 01:14 PM
. * * Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ?? CoconutCandy   Mon Nov 09 2009 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Ida's last gasp? Rasvar   Mon Nov 09 2009 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Ida's last gasp? OrlandoDan   Mon Nov 09 2009 11:10 AM
. * * Ida's last gasp? Rasvar   Mon Nov 09 2009 09:42 AM
. * * Re: November storms... MikeCAdministrator   Mon Nov 09 2009 08:19 AM
. * * Re: November storms... danielwAdministrator   Mon Nov 09 2009 07:26 AM
. * * 09/11Z - Still a hurricane! berrywr   Mon Nov 09 2009 06:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ida? berrywr   Mon Nov 09 2009 06:53 AM
. * * Re: November storms... MikeCAdministrator   Mon Nov 09 2009 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ida? OrlandoDan   Mon Nov 09 2009 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ida? berrywr   Mon Nov 09 2009 06:12 AM
. * * Tropical Storm Ida? berrywr   Mon Nov 09 2009 05:40 AM
. * * Re: my question.... WeatherNut   Sun Nov 08 2009 11:28 PM
. * * my question.... LoisCane   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:57 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Lamar-Plant City   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:49 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Genesis   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today berrywr   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Recon rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Recon Marvin   Sun Nov 08 2009 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Recon Hugh   Sun Nov 08 2009 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Recon MikeCAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Recon rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Recon Hugh   Sun Nov 08 2009 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Recon rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Recon Hugh   Sun Nov 08 2009 07:36 PM
. * * Re: November storms... danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Recon MikeCAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 07:18 PM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 07:01 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Mag   Sun Nov 08 2009 06:58 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Hugh   Sun Nov 08 2009 06:23 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Genesis   Sun Nov 08 2009 06:20 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Hugh   Sun Nov 08 2009 06:08 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Storm Hunter   Sun Nov 08 2009 05:39 PM
. * * Re: November storms... OrlandoDan   Sun Nov 08 2009 05:27 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Storm Hunter   Sun Nov 08 2009 05:26 PM
. * * Re: November storms... kromdog   Sun Nov 08 2009 04:54 PM
. * * Re: November storms... tropicswatch   Sun Nov 08 2009 04:53 PM
. * * Re: November storms... MikeCAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 04:46 PM
. * * Re: November storms... MikeCAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 04:26 PM
. * * Re: November storms... rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! charlottefl   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:41 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Tazmanian93   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:40 PM
. * * Re: November storms... StormHound   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming? CoconutCandy   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! LoisCane   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:28 PM
. * * Re: November storms... kromdog   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Visible Eye Forming? Not! CoconutCandy   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:12 PM
. * * Re: November storms... Rasvar   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:10 PM
. * * Re: November storms... LoisCane   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:08 PM
. * * Re: November storms... tropicswatch   Sun Nov 08 2009 03:02 PM
. * * Re: November storms... MichaelA   Sun Nov 08 2009 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming? rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 02:48 PM
. * * Re: November storms... LoisCane   Sun Nov 08 2009 02:44 PM
. * * Re: November storms... kromdog   Sun Nov 08 2009 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming? LoisCane   Sun Nov 08 2009 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming? MichaelA   Sun Nov 08 2009 02:08 PM
. * * November storms... LoisCane   Sun Nov 08 2009 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming? rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming? kromdog   Sun Nov 08 2009 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming? MichaelA   Sun Nov 08 2009 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Eye Forming? rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today Rasvar   Sun Nov 08 2009 01:24 PM
. * * Eye Forming? mwillis   Sun Nov 08 2009 01:05 PM
. * * Vortex danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 12:38 PM
. * * Vortex Preliminary data danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today Hawkeyewx   Sun Nov 08 2009 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 11:03 AM
. * * Hurricane Ida Nearing Cancun, Bordering on Cat 2, Eyewall Replacement Cycle Underway ?? CoconutCandy   Sun Nov 08 2009 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today mcgowanmc   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today Rasvar   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today rgd   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today Rasvar   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 08 2009 10:11 AM

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