Latest NOAA/CPC forecasts indicate that the current moderate El Nino should persist through Spring 2010, and probably linger in a weaker state through the Summer. The forecast implies a below normal season for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Initial selections for best analog years are 1973, 1993, 1968 and 1987, and my initial outlook for the 2010 season is 8/4/1 (8 named storms with 4 becoming hurricanes and one of the four becoming a major hurricane).
This is your chance to post your own forecast for the season. Rationale is not required, although the reasoning behind your numbers is always welcomed. I’ll keep this thread open until the end of May and then we can examine the results at the end of the season. Last year as a group we didn’t do so well with most of the forecasts running on the high side.
Note that multi-year below normal seasons are not that uncommon. Recent examples include 1967-68, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-87 and 1991-94. To make it easier to compile the end-of-season results, please limit your inputs in this thread to forecasts (and rationale if any). Cheers, ED
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 44893
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center