SST forecast discussions now state that about half of the models show a decline in El Nino to a neutral state while half of the models continue El Nino through April, May and June. The NOAA consensus is that the current El Nino has peaked at +1.2C in the ENSO 3.4 region of the equatorial eastern Pacific.
Note that only those forecasts that state firm numbers (rather than a range of numbers) can be considered in the final tally of how well the site users forecasted the seasonal totals since scoring is based on numerical deviation from the final totals.
Also note that as the season approaches and new data becomes available, you can adjust your forecast until this thread closes at the end of May.
While current trends in ENSO anomalies would hint at the potential for a busier season, since SST forecasts during the winter season are notorius for considerable variability, I'm going to maintain my low-end forecast for awhile longer.
For those that might be considering a busy season, if in fact the El Nino declines, the best analog years are 1978, 1988, 1966 and 1998 in that order. ED
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