SST forecast discussions now state that about half of the models show a decline in El Nino to a neutral state while half of the models continue El Nino through April, May and June. The NOAA consensus is that the current El Nino has peaked at +1.2C in the ENSO 3.4 region of the equatorial eastern Pacific.
Note that only those forecasts that state firm numbers (rather than a range of numbers) can be considered in the final tally of how well the site users forecasted the seasonal totals since scoring is based on numerical deviation from the final totals.
Also note that as the season approaches and new data becomes available, you can adjust your forecast until this thread closes at the end of May.
While current trends in ENSO anomalies would hint at the potential for a busier season, since SST forecasts during the winter season are notorius for considerable variability, I'm going to maintain my low-end forecast for awhile longer.
For those that might be considering a busy season, if in fact the El Nino declines, the best analog years are 1978, 1988, 1966 and 1998 in that order. ED
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 25315
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center