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The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

CDMOrlando
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season
      Thu Mar 04 2010 12:29 PM

2010 Prediction

This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:

1. The El NiƱo that many of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral condition are likely for this upcoming late summer/fall. d.

2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2009 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification..

Despite a fairly inactive 2009 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=74948&Main=74348

No. of Hurricanes 9
No. of Named Storms 15
No. of Hurricane Days 30
No. of Named Storm Days 69
Intense Hurricanes 3
Intense Hurricane Days 5
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 154

Edited by danielw (Fri Mar 05 2010 08:14 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Mar 04 2010 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon May 31 2010 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season WeatherNut   Mon May 31 2010 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season tekkrite   Sun May 30 2010 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Epicyear2010   Sun May 30 2010 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season jamesrainier   Sat May 29 2010 05:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season weathernet   Sat May 29 2010 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 26 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season okihabu   Thu May 27 2010 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season ftlaudbob   Thu May 27 2010 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Lamar-Plant City   Wed May 26 2010 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed in Va   Thu May 27 2010 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season rmbjoe1954   Thu May 27 2010 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed in Va   Thu May 27 2010 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Storm Hunter   Thu May 27 2010 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Thu May 27 2010 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Chris 566   Wed May 26 2010 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season cieldumort   Tue May 25 2010 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Doombot!   Tue May 25 2010 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Tue May 25 2010 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Apr 15 2010 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season srquirrely   Tue May 04 2010 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Sun May 16 2010 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 16 2010 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Mon May 17 2010 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 17 2010 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season saltysenior   Mon May 17 2010 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Tue May 04 2010 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season MichaelA   Wed May 05 2010 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season stormtiger   Fri May 07 2010 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri May 07 2010 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season IMTechspec   Sat Apr 17 2010 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season ma10487   Mon May 03 2010 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season gsand   Mon Apr 12 2010 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 28 2010 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Wed Apr 14 2010 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Bloodstar   Thu Mar 04 2010 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Bloodstar   Thu May 20 2010 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Thu May 20 2010 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season rmbjoe1954   Thu Mar 11 2010 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season lawman6713   Sat Mar 27 2010 05:50 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GoBigSurf   Sun Apr 11 2010 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Storm Hunter   Sun Apr 11 2010 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season CDMOrlando   Thu Mar 04 2010 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season jessiej   Wed Mar 03 2010 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Feb 18 2010 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season JoshuaK   Sat Feb 20 2010 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Sat Feb 20 2010 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season B.C.Francis   Mon Feb 22 2010 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season enterlaughing   Mon Mar 01 2010 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Thu Feb 18 2010 12:27 PM

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