MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Significantly Above Average Activity Predicted for 2010
Wed Apr 07 2010 02:10 PM
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Today, Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray at Colorado State University (See the 2010 Forecast Detail)
have updated their 2010 probability forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season (See the 2010 Forecast Detail).
In comparison, last year was forecast to be at or below average, and it was slightly below average (9NS, 3H, 2MH)
From this it appears it is likely for an above average hurricane season this year, with the largest single element in favor of that being the waning El Niño, which should become neutral by July. This suggests less activity for June, and slight potential for July storms, but much more likely into Late August.
Water temperatures across the Atlantic have been much warmer than usual the past several weeks, and the Gulf is beginning to warm as well. Trade winds have been weaker this year than in the past, allowing the water to warm more.
The numbers predicted for this year (As of April 7th), are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 Intense (Major) Hurricanes. Historically the averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.
Landfall Probabilities for a major hurricane for entire United States coastline: 69% .
East Coast, including Florida: 45%
Gulf Coast (Florida Panhandle Westward): 44%
There isn’t much to disagree with this year. Although landfalls are extraordinarily difficult to predict. The positions of the Bermuda and Azores high will help determine if systems move more westward or recurve out to sea. Analog years for this season are 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998, 2005. This includes some years with some very memorable storms.
Since early indicators are shaping up to be an above average year, we should not be using the past two years as a comparison. With the economy slow in many areas with public budget shortfalls as well, many places may be ill equipped for the potential of this year’s hurricane season. Hopefully the steering currents will keep most of the activity away from the coast.
On the optimistic side, Hurricanes are still rare events, and there is a lot that must be just right for them to form and to impact land with any strength. Weaker systems can cause flooding issues too, but this year there seems to be significantly less in the overall pattern to keep systems from forming or maintaining themselves, unlike 2009.
It's prudent to be watching closely this year, and it appears we may have quite a bit to watch.
Remember: Social Networking Sites such as facebook and twitter are great ways to "get the word out" if you are ok if a disaster strikes. (Either via you or someone that has access to it, let them know to send out the a-ok, and hopefully reduce the telephone overload that usually occurs with a major disaster.)
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