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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season
Thu Apr 15 2010 07:53 PM

As a counterpoint to the Main Page article, I'm not yet convinced that the 'early indicators are shaping up to be an above average year'. NOAA's latest SST ENSO forecast (issued on April 11th) states an expectation that the current El Nino will last through this Spring with ENSO neutral conditions likely for this Summer.

As mentioned earlier in this thread, the winter SST anomaly predictions often come with a high degree of variability, and the same degree of forecast variability has already surfaced this year. As of February 18th the NOAA consensus was that the current El Nino SST anomaly had peaked at +1.2C in Sept/Oct/Nov - but the actual peak was +1.8C in Nov/Dec/Jan. I'd anticipate that the anomaly for Feb/Mar/Apr will be around +1.1C and that the decline will continue to an ENSO neutral state by Jul/Aug/Sep.

( Note that the anomaly for Feb/Mar/Apr came in at +1.2C )

I took a look at the SST climatological data where the SST anomaly had been around +0.6C during May/June/July of the previous year and had increased to about +1.5C in Jan/Feb/Mar and then decreasing at that point (or earlier). 1958, 1966, 1973 and 1992 met the criteria, however, the rate of decline was quite similar to the rate expected for this season in 1958 and 1966. The season totals for 1958 were 10/7/5 and for 1966 the totals were 11/7/4. While the SSTs in the tropical Atlantic are expected to be above normal, the amount of temperature increase is not too significant at about +0.5 or 0.6C.

With all of those considerations in mind, I'll nudge my seasonal expectations up to 10/6/3 - a rather normal season.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 04 2010 12:14 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Outlook for the 2010 Season	Ed Dunham	Thu Apr 15 2010 07:53 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Ed Dunham	Mon May 31 2010 11:05 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	WeatherNut	Mon May 31 2010 11:03 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	tekkrite	Sun May 30 2010 10:08 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Epicyear2010	Sun May 30 2010 06:44 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	jamesrainier	Sat May 29 2010 05:10 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	weathernet	Sat May 29 2010 06:39 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Ed Dunham	Wed May 26 2010 08:16 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	okihabu	Thu May 27 2010 12:14 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	ftlaudbob	Thu May 27 2010 12:33 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Lamar-Plant City	Wed May 26 2010 12:07 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Ed in Va	Thu May 27 2010 11:13 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	rmbjoe1954	Thu May 27 2010 02:19 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Ed in Va	Thu May 27 2010 03:35 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Storm Hunter	Thu May 27 2010 05:19 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	GlenJohnson	Thu May 27 2010 11:38 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Chris 566	Wed May 26 2010 11:59 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	cieldumort	Tue May 25 2010 03:42 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Doombot!	Tue May 25 2010 05:42 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	GlenJohnson	Tue May 25 2010 11:43 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Ed Dunham	Thu Apr 15 2010 07:53 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	srquirrely	Tue May 04 2010 12:33 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Hurricane29	Sun May 16 2010 12:32 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Ed Dunham	Sun May 16 2010 08:31 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Hurricane29	Mon May 17 2010 10:03 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Lamar-Plant City	Mon May 17 2010 12:31 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	saltysenior	Mon May 17 2010 10:32 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	GlenJohnson	Tue May 04 2010 01:41 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	MichaelA	Wed May 05 2010 03:39 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	stormtiger	Fri May 07 2010 10:22 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	SkeetoBite	Fri May 07 2010 11:00 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	IMTechspec	Sat Apr 17 2010 11:06 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	ma10487	Mon May 03 2010 05:07 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	gsand	Mon Apr 12 2010 05:36 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	MikeC	Fri May 28 2010 07:57 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	GlenJohnson	Wed Apr 14 2010 08:53 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Bloodstar	Thu Mar 04 2010 03:53 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Bloodstar	Thu May 20 2010 01:28 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	GlenJohnson	Thu May 20 2010 08:14 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	rmbjoe1954	Thu Mar 11 2010 01:04 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	lawman6713	Sat Mar 27 2010 05:50 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	GoBigSurf	Sun Apr 11 2010 12:46 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Storm Hunter	Sun Apr 11 2010 11:32 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	CDMOrlando	Thu Mar 04 2010 12:29 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	jessiej	Wed Mar 03 2010 08:33 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Ed Dunham	Thu Feb 18 2010 09:28 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	JoshuaK	Sat Feb 20 2010 07:13 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Hurricane29	Sat Feb 20 2010 10:52 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	B.C.Francis	Mon Feb 22 2010 12:34 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	enterlaughing	Mon Mar 01 2010 09:45 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season	Hurricane29	Thu Feb 18 2010 12:27 PM

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