I have been thinking along the same lines as Ed, for the last few weeks. However, he said it clearer than I would have and with better data to back it up!
I see and hear some folks talking as if the El Nino and it's affects will turn off almost as if a switch has been thrown. While it has not been a strong El Nino, he has been a persistent little guy, and the effects will take a while to fade. I recognize that there are some other potentially positive indicators shaping up that would favor more development, such as Atlantic SSTs and Winds, but so far these factors are not enough to push me into thinking that we at risk of a VERY active season. Let us hope that I am right.
At this point, I am predicting 11 named, 6 Hurricanes, 3 majors.
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