MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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2010 Season Arriving Soon, Noaa's Numbers Out
Sat May 15 2010 10:50 AM
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May 31 12:30 PM EDT Update
The remnants of the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Agatha have crossed Central America and have moved into the western Caribbean, it has a small chance to develop over the next day or two and is worth watching as the start of hurricane season approaches tomorrow.
May 28 6:30 AM EDT Update
The invest system, 90L did not get any more organized, and the small chance of something forming before this season is gone.
However, the season does indeed start this coming Tuesday, and although it looks like June may start slow, the latter half may begin to see some activity. The usual gradual build up to mid August will likely occur this year as well, with a higher chance for July activity than normal, but about the same as average for June.
NOAA's Climate Prediction numbers are out:
Note these area a statistical approach, and not really a forecast. with about a 70% chance of verifying.
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
With an Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) range of 155%-270% of the median.
If you would like to make your own guess/prediction on numbers for the season, you can do so over here -- This will close on June 1st.
Meanwhile in the east pacific, the first depression may be trying to form from the invest area 90E over there and could become a depression later today.
May 24 6:30 AM EDT Update
A special, pre-season tropical weather outlook has been issued mentioning the system has a 30% chance of tropical or sub-tropical development. Still likely to not have much real impact other than higher surf.
With a little more time to examine 90L it is worth noting that actual and forecast southwesterly windshear is again on the increase. At least three separate low-level swirls are visible this morning - all quite weak as convection remains displaced to the northeast. Although the gradient winds are brisk well to the northeast of the mean center (35 knots), 90L remains poorly organized.
This week is Hurricane Preparedness Week.
May 21 Noon Update
The system in the Bahamas has been designated invest 90L, the first of 2010 in the Atlantic. It's still not likely to become tropical, but worth watching since it may approach the eastern United States.
It may hover in the general same position and eventually drift northwest toward the outer banks in North Carolina early next week, possibly as a subtropical system. Those in the Carolinas will want to keep watch, mostly just for a rainy/nasty day.
An invest is a weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA (Joint Typhoon Warning Center / Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) should be consulted for this purpose.
{{StormLinks|Invest 90L|90|1|2010|1|}}
Accuweather video Update (90L)
May 21 6AM Update
On the two system: The southwest Caribbean system is going to have a lot of shear to deal with that is going to likely keep this one a rainmaker.
The system near the Bahamas is becoming a cut-off surface low and still has a chance to become a hybrid or subtropical system, generally moving slowly westward and possibly approaching the US is 5 days or so. (Near GA/SC). If it does it will be rough surf, somewhat windy, and plenty of rain--yet not tropical.
For more information I'd recommend looking at the Area Forecast Discussions (At the top of the main page) and various links below and our links page.
May 19th 11AM Update
An area in the southwest Caribbean sea is worth watching for possible early development as well as an area north of the Bahamas which could develop into a cutoff low or subtropical/hybrid system, bringing much rain.
The area nearer to the US is likely to stay offshore and may near Bermuda late next week. Most of it likely will be heavy rain along with some winds and rough surf for the southeast, and non tropical.
The area in the Southwestern Caribbean likely will bring at least heavy rainfall to Hispaniola, and has a small chance of becoming a tropical entity. If anything has a chance at least becoming an investigation area, this is it.
Both areas, although unlikely, are possible candidates for development and will be watched, but these suggestions are currently based on models alone, so likelihood of anything amounting to something is very low.
System near Bahamas chances of tropical development over the next week:
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*--------------------]
System in Southwest Caribbean development chances over the next week
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--*-------------------]
Original Update
Today, May 15th is the first day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, but the Atlantic does not start until June 1st.
The names for the Pacific this year are Agatha, Blas, Celia, Darby, Estelle, Frank, Georgette, Howard, Isis, Javier, Kay, Lester, Madeline, Newton, Orlene, Paine, Roslyn, Seymour, Tina, Virgil, Winifred, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke. Flhurricane's focus is usually only on the Atlantic basin. "Coconut Candy" will post some things regarding the East Pacific and Hawaii, however.
Right now there is no activity anywhere in any basin. Conditions this year may keep the East Pacific less active this year, the Atlantic is likely to be more active this year than prior years, but it looks like the Atlantic won't be active until July.
For the Atlantic, the names this year will be Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter
We are in neutral ENSO conditions now, and later this year we can watch earlier for activity,as the neutral may transform into La Nina conditions may form more quickly (and possibility stronger) than previously expected. Unlike last year, there is more of a possibility for June/Early July systems than there was last year. Luckily, they usually are fairly weak. In short, last year we were quite negative for development, this year there aren't nearly as many reasons to be in general.
The outlook for 2010 remains that it is very likely to be an active year, but we cannot predict exactly where storms will wind up. If it is to be an active year, hopefully most activity will stay offshore.
There are no signs of any Atlantic development occurring in May.
Be thinking of getting your hurricane season supplies ready over the next few weeks into June.
Other:
South Florida Information on Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Spill discussion
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