Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

CoconutCandy
User


Reged:
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Eastern Pacific Begins as El Nino Subsiding
      Sat May 15 2010 10:34 PM Attachment (228 downloads)

Aloha Friends. As Mike has pointed out today, May 15th marks the beginning of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, although the Central Pacific Hurricane Season, like the Atlantic's, won't begin until June 1st.

The good news for the Eastern and Central Pacific Basins is that the moderately strong El Nino conditions that have prevailed for the past year or so are gradually subsiding. The 2 degrees C temperature anomoly isotherm that had been so prevalent across much of the Eastern and Central Pacific Basins has gradually contracted in horizontal extent and is now present only between about 98 and 110 degrees longitude west, and appears to be rapidly subsiding. (See Attachment)

Unfortunately, this returning to ENSO Neutral conditions implies a return to more normal Tropical Cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin, as other recent posts in these forums have suggested. Indeed, an above normal season is anticipated, as a return to ENSO Neutral and possibly even a transition to La Nina conditions by mid-summer could harbinger a return to the busy hurricane seasons we've seen beginning in 1995.

The following is the El Nino synopsis from a May 10th 'expert discussion' issued from the Climate Prediction Center.

-- A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is underway.
-- Sea surface temperatures are decreasing across much of the Pacific Ocean.
-- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
-- Although most models predict ENSO-neutral conditions, there is a growing possibility of La Niña developing during the second half of 2010.

So all in all, it appears that the Atlantic is likely to be quite busy this season, while the Eastern Pacific will see more normal and possibly less than normal Tropical Cyclone activity. And the Central Pacific, where Hawaii is located, should see *much less* activity this year, compared to last seasons' *very busy* year, which exhibited numerous Tropical Storms and Hurricanes.

There was even a very strong Invest that very nearly became a Tropical Depression in February of this year, about 1200 miles SW of the Hawaiian Islands, but apparently was too far south for the Coriolis Effect to impart sufficient 'spin' for cyclogenesis to occur. Some models were developing it into a TS and tracking it generally towards Hawaii.

As usual, I'll be posting frequently throughout the season on Tropical Cyclone activity in the Eastern, Central and Western Pacific Basins. Everyone is invited and encouraged to post your comments and questions in this "Other Storm Basins" forum, as well.

Edited by CoconutCandy (Sat May 15 2010 10:45 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Eastern Pacific Begins as El Nino Subsiding CoconutCandy Sat May 15 2010 10:34 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 3041

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center