Quote: Well, I'd done all this math to come up with a statistical reason for my prediction and I think I forgot to hit post. But here we go Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 21 Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 19 Hurricanes - 10 Major Hurricanes - 5
Where did these numbers come from? by taking the most active of the 4 out of last 6 years and averaging out the totals and then adjusting by one, depending on my feelings of verisimilitude for my numbers.
With the SSTs warming and we're already heading towards La Nina conditions I'm going to go ahead and revise my forecast:
Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 23 Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 21 Hurricanes - 12 Major Hurricanes - 7
I've taken the three most active years this last decade (by catagory) and averaged them together and then bumped the numbers up by one.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 44319
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center