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Trop Storm Watch/Warns pos. for Windwards and NE coast of Venezuela by tonight with 94L. Also tracking wave behind 94L and NW Gulf.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 286 (Nicholas) , Major: 301 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1355 (Michael) Major: 1355 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2128
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season
      Tue May 25 2010 03:42 PM

*edit* Raising my numbers after further study. In particular, trends continue *rapidly* developing in favor of a season of substantially lower-than-average shear, average to above average moisture content (perhaps much above average once the African monsoon kicks in), significantly lower MSLP, significantly enhanced instabilities, greater numbers of potential disturbances with which to build upon, and low and lowering SAL.

Additionally, historical trends since 1995 suggest that even an unimpressive, "average" season during these years would yield roughly 14-15 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes. Barring any unforeseen changes, this year continues turning up to have the potential to best those figures by at least 20%.

My newly adjusted best guesses are now as follows:
19 storms total (named in real-time and/or added post-season), of which 11 become hurricanes, of which 6 become major hurricanes.

Orig. Entry:

Happy New Year, everyone.

It looks like a number of us are generally clustered around in above to well-above average numbers.

Given the likelihood of an Atlantic hurricane season that, as mentioned here and elsewhere, is currently following many similar trends as seen during 1958, 1969, 1998, 2005 and other very active years, calling for numbers considerably above the long-term average makes plenty of sense.

I'm finding my eagerness to join the chorus maybe only a little held in check by lots of seasonal shear and drier air still bantering about, some still cooler SSTs closer to home in regions that are typically more favorable for early development, relatively less activity and generally drier conditions over western Africa, and a potentially unknown variable in the form of a very large oil slick coating a TBD surface area, which could, in theory, hold back at least some statistically significant heat transferability.



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Edited by cieldumort (Thu May 27 2010 06:22 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue May 25 2010 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon May 31 2010 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season WeatherNut   Mon May 31 2010 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season tekkrite   Sun May 30 2010 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Epicyear2010   Sun May 30 2010 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season jamesrainier   Sat May 29 2010 05:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season weathernet   Sat May 29 2010 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 26 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season okihabu   Thu May 27 2010 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season ftlaudbob   Thu May 27 2010 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Lamar-Plant City   Wed May 26 2010 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed in Va   Thu May 27 2010 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season rmbjoe1954   Thu May 27 2010 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed in Va   Thu May 27 2010 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Storm Hunter   Thu May 27 2010 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Thu May 27 2010 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Chris 566   Wed May 26 2010 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season cieldumort   Tue May 25 2010 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Doombot!   Tue May 25 2010 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Tue May 25 2010 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Apr 15 2010 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season srquirrely   Tue May 04 2010 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Sun May 16 2010 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 16 2010 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Mon May 17 2010 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 17 2010 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season saltysenior   Mon May 17 2010 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Tue May 04 2010 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season MichaelA   Wed May 05 2010 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season stormtiger   Fri May 07 2010 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri May 07 2010 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season IMTechspec   Sat Apr 17 2010 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season ma10487   Mon May 03 2010 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season gsand   Mon Apr 12 2010 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 28 2010 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Wed Apr 14 2010 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Bloodstar   Thu Mar 04 2010 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Bloodstar   Thu May 20 2010 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Thu May 20 2010 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season rmbjoe1954   Thu Mar 11 2010 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season lawman6713   Sat Mar 27 2010 05:50 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GoBigSurf   Sun Apr 11 2010 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Storm Hunter   Sun Apr 11 2010 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season CDMOrlando   Thu Mar 04 2010 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season jessiej   Wed Mar 03 2010 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Feb 18 2010 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season JoshuaK   Sat Feb 20 2010 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Sat Feb 20 2010 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season B.C.Francis   Mon Feb 22 2010 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season enterlaughing   Mon Mar 01 2010 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Thu Feb 18 2010 12:27 PM

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