No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
20 (Milton)
, Major:
20 (Milton)
Florida - Any: 20 (Milton)
Major:
20 (Milton)
Thr latest NCEP SST Outlook issued on May 23rd confirms an earlier end to El Nino conditions and a more modest La Nina in the ENSO 3.4 region for the next six months (or more). With consideration for this trend I'm going to nudge my seasonal outlook to 11/7/3. Note that 1966 replaces 1958 as the best analog year. There are some SST trends that support the season getting underway in July rather than August. You still have a few more days to throw your hat into the ring with your own forecast for the season. The latest CSU forecast is scheduled for release on June 2nd, and this thread will close on May 31st. Cheers, ED
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