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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2307
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon, Special Tropical Weather Outlook Issued
      Thu May 27 2010 02:12 PM

Invest 90L is starting to get its act together a little bit today, and I would now probably give it about a 20-30% chance of becoming a numbered system within the next 48 hours. Shear is moderate, as the non-tropical low is rather stacked, and what shear there is has been helping to fan the convection near and mostly just to the east of the mean center. If this process continues, it could help to moisten up the entire column over a wider area, allowing for additional convection to take hold over the next while, and giving 90L a better shot at developing something resembling a more traditional warm core.

Movement is likely to keep the system offshore at least for the near-term, assuming it just doesn't get squeezed into oblivion and/or shot out to sea.

Bermuda and boaters may also want to be watching much more closely, now. Even if 90L melds with the approaching frontal system from its north and loses what little chance it has had of transitioning into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm, odds look to favor at the least a brief increase in organization, along with some blustery gales and squalls.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2010 Season Arriving Soon, Noaa's Numbers Out MikeCAdministrator Thu May 27 2010 02:12 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon, Special Tropical Weather Outlook Issued cieldumort   Thu May 27 2010 02:12 PM
. * * Re: 90L Storm Hunter   Wed May 26 2010 09:24 PM
. * * Re: 90L Ed in Va   Mon May 24 2010 03:10 PM
. * * Re: 90L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon May 24 2010 01:25 PM
. * * Re: 90L GlenJohnson   Mon May 24 2010 12:53 PM
. * * Re: 90L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon May 24 2010 04:09 AM
. * * 90L danielwAdministrator   Sun May 23 2010 09:49 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon MichaelA   Sun May 23 2010 08:06 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon weatherguy08   Sun May 23 2010 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon MichaelA   Sun May 23 2010 11:02 AM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon scottsvb   Sat May 22 2010 05:33 AM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon cieldumort   Fri May 21 2010 09:35 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon GlenJohnson   Fri May 21 2010 09:26 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon Tony Cristaldi   Fri May 21 2010 12:41 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon danielwAdministrator   Fri May 21 2010 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 21 2010 10:30 AM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon hogrunr   Wed May 19 2010 02:07 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon Tony Cristaldi   Wed May 19 2010 01:55 PM
. * * Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon MikeCAdministrator   Tue May 18 2010 01:36 PM

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