Well for what its worth, decided to add my 3 cents worth. Besides, given that the one closest to season accuracy will receive 1MILLION Dollars...........why not! ( wishful thinking )
As I see it, were seeing the typical shear that this time of year might bring. Though there is no doubt some "lag" effect from El Nino, I have no reason to think wer'e going to see an early season. So given that a first named system doesn't form until the first week of July, it just seems so improbable to find a way to predict 20+ systems reaching Tropical Storm intensity ( or greater ). That said, present day SST anomolies are quite obviously high ( for Eastern/Central Atlantic ). It remains to be seen if we're already seeing the near maximum Atlantic temps., more typically witnessed in August/September, or if a continued rise continues. If the current SST anomolies continue to outpace a typical warming that we would normally see over the next few months, and forecast upper level winds truly relax as much as forecast......, than those especially along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard had better hope for a long wave to camp out over or just east of the U.S. Seaboard. Only saving grace for the Gulf states, might be whatever unusually favorable conditions in the Eastern Atlantic, might just mean that many less waves sneaking undeveloped into the Western Caribbean and Gulf.
This all said, and assuming actualization of forecasted below average surface pressures across the tropical Atlantic, coupled with forecasted low shear, I'm gonna bet against "crazy" busy, and simply go with "crazy" bad instead.
My 2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone forecast is for 17 Named T.S., with a high percentage of 14 becoming hurricanes, and 7 of them being major ( Cat. 3 and above ). To really go out on a limb, am guessing that at least 4 hurricanes this year reach Cat. 4 or greater strength.
Honestly though, other than the poleward moving storms that would normally develop in the W. Caribbean in October, if we can slip by the next 30 days or so without the typically early threats to the Gulf....."how many" or how bad" may prove mostly irrelevent if most end up as fish spinners. Any insights that anyone else might have regarding long term set up of the Western Atlantic ridge and longwave would be of greater interest to me. I don't believe such forecast tools exist however, that might accurately foresee such indications beyond a few weeks.
To summerize, am guessing 17/14/7
Edited by weathernet (Sat May 29 2010 06:41 PM)