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The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 126 (Nicholas) , Major: 142 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1196 (Michael) Major: 1196 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

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Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season
      Sat May 29 2010 06:39 PM

Well for what its worth, decided to add my 3 cents worth. Besides, given that the one closest to season accuracy will receive 1MILLION Dollars...........why not! ( wishful thinking )

As I see it, were seeing the typical shear that this time of year might bring. Though there is no doubt some "lag" effect from El Nino, I have no reason to think wer'e going to see an early season. So given that a first named system doesn't form until the first week of July, it just seems so improbable to find a way to predict 20+ systems reaching Tropical Storm intensity ( or greater ). That said, present day SST anomolies are quite obviously high ( for Eastern/Central Atlantic ). It remains to be seen if we're already seeing the near maximum Atlantic temps., more typically witnessed in August/September, or if a continued rise continues. If the current SST anomolies continue to outpace a typical warming that we would normally see over the next few months, and forecast upper level winds truly relax as much as forecast......, than those especially along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard had better hope for a long wave to camp out over or just east of the U.S. Seaboard. Only saving grace for the Gulf states, might be whatever unusually favorable conditions in the Eastern Atlantic, might just mean that many less waves sneaking undeveloped into the Western Caribbean and Gulf.

This all said, and assuming actualization of forecasted below average surface pressures across the tropical Atlantic, coupled with forecasted low shear, I'm gonna bet against "crazy" busy, and simply go with "crazy" bad instead.

My 2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone forecast is for 17 Named T.S., with a high percentage of 14 becoming hurricanes, and 7 of them being major ( Cat. 3 and above ). To really go out on a limb, am guessing that at least 4 hurricanes this year reach Cat. 4 or greater strength.

Honestly though, other than the poleward moving storms that would normally develop in the W. Caribbean in October, if we can slip by the next 30 days or so without the typically early threats to the Gulf....."how many" or how bad" may prove mostly irrelevent if most end up as fish spinners. Any insights that anyone else might have regarding long term set up of the Western Atlantic ridge and longwave would be of greater interest to me. I don't believe such forecast tools exist however, that might accurately foresee such indications beyond a few weeks.

To summerize, am guessing 17/14/7

Edited by weathernet (Sat May 29 2010 06:41 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat May 29 2010 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon May 31 2010 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season WeatherNut   Mon May 31 2010 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season tekkrite   Sun May 30 2010 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Epicyear2010   Sun May 30 2010 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season jamesrainier   Sat May 29 2010 05:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season weathernet   Sat May 29 2010 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 26 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season okihabu   Thu May 27 2010 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season ftlaudbob   Thu May 27 2010 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Lamar-Plant City   Wed May 26 2010 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed in Va   Thu May 27 2010 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season rmbjoe1954   Thu May 27 2010 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed in Va   Thu May 27 2010 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Storm Hunter   Thu May 27 2010 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Thu May 27 2010 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Chris 566   Wed May 26 2010 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season cieldumort   Tue May 25 2010 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Doombot!   Tue May 25 2010 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Tue May 25 2010 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Apr 15 2010 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season srquirrely   Tue May 04 2010 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Sun May 16 2010 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 16 2010 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Mon May 17 2010 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 17 2010 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season saltysenior   Mon May 17 2010 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Tue May 04 2010 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season MichaelA   Wed May 05 2010 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season stormtiger   Fri May 07 2010 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri May 07 2010 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season IMTechspec   Sat Apr 17 2010 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season ma10487   Mon May 03 2010 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season gsand   Mon Apr 12 2010 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 28 2010 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Wed Apr 14 2010 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Bloodstar   Thu Mar 04 2010 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Bloodstar   Thu May 20 2010 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GlenJohnson   Thu May 20 2010 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season rmbjoe1954   Thu Mar 11 2010 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season lawman6713   Sat Mar 27 2010 05:50 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season GoBigSurf   Sun Apr 11 2010 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Storm Hunter   Sun Apr 11 2010 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season CDMOrlando   Thu Mar 04 2010 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season jessiej   Wed Mar 03 2010 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Feb 18 2010 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season JoshuaK   Sat Feb 20 2010 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Sat Feb 20 2010 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season B.C.Francis   Mon Feb 22 2010 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season enterlaughing   Mon Mar 01 2010 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season Hurricane29   Thu Feb 18 2010 12:27 PM

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