Just joined the site. I enjoyed reading all of the analysis so far, but here is mine.
1.) Because of the rapid decline of el nino in the spring to a weak nina, there is more than likely lagging effects, hence the higher shear. Although, hurricane season is just starting. Shear should decrease as early as late june. An active July is looking likely at this point.
2.) Carribean, Gulf, and the Atlantic SST's are all above normal, and should continue to rise into july as more east coast ridges start forming.
3.) Into August and September, things looks extremely active. There will more than likely be an above average cape verde season and quite a few long trackers . Depending on the position of the high, the long trackers can travel anywhere from the carribean, to out to sea.
4.) Oil in the Gulf - Dont think this will impact hurricanes at all that pass through, although i have read that it may warm the waters more - which would of course "fuel" the hurricane even more.
FINAL FORECAST
18-21 named storms 14 hurricanes 8 major
5-8 landfalls ranging from Brownsville to Cape Cod
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