MikeC
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Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
Wed Jun 09 2010 09:47 AM
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5:43AM EDIT 16 June 2010
The wave in the Central Caribbean (92L) flared up overnight and satellite intensity estimations (dvorak t-numbers) are up higher than they have ever been, however upper level conditions are not favorable, and likely will destroy the system later today. There is a 10% chance that If the system persists like it has it could develop.
It will most likely continue moving westward as an open wave, without development.
6:58AM EDIT 15 June 2010
The wave in the Central Caribbean (92L) has persisted overnight, and for a while was looking better on satellite. This morning it appears to be losing some of the deep convection, and without it development won't occur. I expect the chances to fluctuate on an overall trend down slowly through the day for development, and most likely it will continue moving westward as an open wave, without development.
It is about to run out of time for development before running into shear.
6:50AM EDIT 14 June 2010
The wave (92L) is still holding together this morning, but not quite enough to support a tropical depression. It could form tonight or tomorrow if it continues to persist, and slowly organize like it has been. Models still do not have a very good handle on the wave. It is starting to gain some latitude as well. See Ed Dunham's take on the low latitude systems.. Invest 92L has a chance to join a short list of systems if it should attain Tropical Depression status while still below 10 degrees in latitude.
Convection is starting to organize around the center and consolidating. The overall large size it had yesterday is giving way to a more concentrated area.
With the consolidation it may adjust the apparent center slightly more to the north. This is another reason why the chances are still 60%. Once there is a clear center chances will go up. The condition of the upper air anticyclone relative to the low level center can also slow the development.
The window for development is today and tomorrow before conditions with shear will likely worsen.
Another wave exiting Africa (again, odd for the type in June) may be worth watching later as well, other wave opportunities will probably exist through next week as well.
The pattern this year is nearly opposite of the prevalent slow/weak development pattern of last year.
Those in the lesser Antilles will want to watch this system, but probably just for rainfall.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Invest 92L|92|1|2010|1|}}
8:00PM EDIT 13 June 2010
The wave in the Central Atlantic (92L) has persisted throughout the day and now has approximately a 60% chance for development into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. It has short term conditions favorable for development, and it is projected to move mostly westward toward the Caribbean Islands, where shear may increase. Those in the Windward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch this system if it develops.
This is an unusual situation for June, so any development may not last very long.
9:00AM EDIT 13 June 2010
Signs of larger (or broader) area of low level circulation are starting to appear in the tropical wave known as 92L. Development chances may be closer to 40-50%. Movement of this area is generally toward the west around 9 mph.
The wave is over some abnormally warm water, but it still lacks the convection near the "center", roughly 7.6N / 34W. The overall flow is really large. It'll probably take another day to get wrapped in enough around the center to become a real candidate for development, if it does. Looking at water vapor imagery, It won't have that large of a window for development (see the elongation along the northwestern side of the area), which is probably the strongest reason it won't develop much, if at all. Still development chances are currently on an upward trend.
8:00AM EDIT 13 June 2010
The tropical wave in the southern Central Atlantic (92L), has not changed much overnight. Still about a 20-30% chance for development. If it persists through the day it may have a chance for development, but odds still are that nothing will occur with the system other than early season hype.
Leave a comment here if you have any thoughts on it.
There is a short term favorable environment for development, but this likely won't last long enough for the system to become organized. It does "look" good for a June system, however.
5:45PM EDIT 12 June 2010
Invest 92L is being tracked in the Atlantic, it is not likely to develop. This far east in June is rare, however.
92L is quite organized for this time in June, and is in an area of relatively low shear along with warm water temperatures. It likely will not last, but it still has about a 20-30% chance for development over the next few days as it moves westward. It is worth watching, but likely not to do much. It has no low-level circulation to speak of at the moment and models are a bit too early to believe.
If the system persists, chances for development may go up, but the more likely scenario of it not developing has climatology behind it. The very low latitude is also a factor against development.
Shear is likely to increase as it approaches the Windward islands, which will keep it in check. The short term factors seem, at first glance, seem like it may allow for development, but without a persistent low level circulation center it is too early to expect anything from this at all. Tomorrow will be telling.
8AM EDT 10 June 2010
The wave in the eastern Caribbean was sheared more than expected, enough to reduce chances of any development, even in the future. June remains mostly quiet.
Original Update
There is a tropical wave approaching the windward islands of the Caribbean that has no chance to develop in the short term, but as it enters into the central and western Caribbean shear begins to drop off and it has a chance to develop.
Worth this weekend into next week, but not in the near term. If anything occurs, it would likely just continue westward into Central America pr the Yucatan into Mexico, most likely as a rain event late next week. Rain in general across the Caribbean may be enhanced by this and a TUTT system.
What's odd about this particular wave is you usually do not see this type of wave until later July into August.
Other than this, there is not too much else going on, shear remains fairly strong in the Atlantic at least for now, but likely will start to fall off into July.
The water temperatures remain, in general, are a good deal warmer than last year at this time.
We'll be watching this wave over the next several days.
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